In [35]:
df['engine_capacity_cc'].hist(bins=20)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
The goal of this project is the investigate what causes Serious and Fatal accidents in hopes of preventing and decreasing the number of them. The dataset consists of accident records from the UK over the course of 15+ years. I hope to show the causes of these accidents through visualizations and create an algorithm that can predict the severity of accidents.
The UK government collects and publishes (usually on an annual basis) detailed information about traffic accidents across the country. This information includes, but is not limited to, geographical locations, weather conditions, type of vehicles, number of casualties and vehicle manoeuvres, making this a very interesting and comprehensive dataset for analysis and research.
The data that I'm using is compiled and available through Kaggle and in a less compliled form, here.
Genesis L. Taylor
Github | Linkedin | Tableau | genesisltaylor@gmail.com
Problem: Traffic Accidents
Solution Method: Use data to figure out how to lower the number of accidents and the severity of them.
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Introduction, Data Cleaning, and Feature Manipulation
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Introduction, Data Cleaning, and Feature Manipulation: Github Link
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Visualizations and Solution
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Visualizations and Solution: Github Link
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Machine Learning
UK Road Safety: Traffic Accidents and Vehicles Machine Learning: Github Link
Traffic Analysis and Severity Prediction Powerpoint Presentation
Traffic Analysis and Severity Prediction Powerpoint Presentation: Github Link
#Import modules
import numpy as np
import holidays
import pandas as pd
import seaborn as sns
import pickle
import time
import timeit
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
plt.style.use('dark_background')
%matplotlib inline
import datetime
import math
from collections import Counter
#scipy
import scipy.stats as stats
from scipy import stats
from scipy.stats import chi2_contingency
#sklearn
import sklearn
from sklearn import ensemble
from sklearn import preprocessing
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
from sklearn.ensemble import AdaBoostClassifier, BaggingClassifier, ExtraTreesClassifier
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.feature_selection import SelectFromModel
from sklearn.impute import SimpleImputer
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, f1_score, precision_score, log_loss, recall_score
from sklearn.metrics import classification_report, confusion_matrix, roc_auc_score
from sklearn.model_selection import cross_val_score, GridSearchCV, train_test_split
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder, OneHotEncoder, StandardScaler, OrdinalEncoder
from sklearn.svm import SVC
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
from sklearn.utils import resample
#for clustering
from sklearn.cluster import KMeans
from sklearn.preprocessing import normalize
from sklearn.decomposition import PCA
from sklearn.cluster import MiniBatchKMeans
from sklearn.metrics import silhouette_score
#other learners
from xgboost import XGBClassifier
from lightgbm import LGBMClassifier
from kmodes.kmodes import KModes
#imblearn
from imblearn.ensemble import BalancedBaggingClassifier
from imblearn.ensemble import EasyEnsembleClassifier
from imblearn.ensemble import BalancedRandomForestClassifier
#webscraping
import requests
from bs4 import BeautifulSoup
import re
import urllib
from IPython.core.display import HTML
#time series
import statsmodels.api as sm
from pylab import rcParams
import itertools
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import acf, pacf
from statsmodels.tsa.seasonal import seasonal_decompose
from statsmodels.tsa.arima_model import ARIMA
#warning ignorer
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
//anaconda3/lib/python3.7/site-packages/lightgbm/__init__.py:46: UserWarning: Starting from version 2.2.1, the library file in distribution wheels for macOS is built by the Apple Clang (Xcode_8.3.3) compiler. This means that in case of installing LightGBM from PyPI via the ``pip install lightgbm`` command, you don't need to install the gcc compiler anymore. Instead of that, you need to install the OpenMP library, which is required for running LightGBM on the system with the Apple Clang compiler. You can install the OpenMP library by the following command: ``brew install libomp``. "You can install the OpenMP library by the following command: ``brew install libomp``.", UserWarning) Using TensorFlow backend.
# # #DATAFRAME PICKLE CREATED IN CELLS BELOW INSTEAD OF RUNNING THROUGH ENTIRE PROCESS AFTER RESTARTING
# # #import pickled file
df = pd.read_pickle("df.pkl")
# df.to_csv('uktraffic_acc.csv')
#import files
ac = pd.read_csv(r'Accident_Information.csv', low_memory=False, chunksize=30000)
vc = pd.read_csv(r'Vehicle_Information.csv', low_memory=False, chunksize=30000)
Previously, I did not remove "Data missing or out of range" from the datasets however through cleaning and checking the value counts I decided to do so for sanity purposes only. Most of the percentages that had this as a value were not a high percentage either.
#chunk cleaning and dataframing for accident column
acchunk = []
for chunk in ac:
acchunk_filter = chunk[
(chunk.Year.astype(int) >= 2010) &
(chunk.Year.astype(int) <= 2017) &
(chunk['Road_Type'] != "Unknown") &
(chunk['Junction_Control'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Carriageway_Hazards'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Junction_Detail'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Road_Surface_Conditions'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Special_Conditions_at_Site'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Weather_Conditions'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk['Latitude'].notnull()) &
(chunk['Longitude'].notnull())
]
acchunk.append(acchunk_filter)
df1 = pd.concat(acchunk)
#chunk cleaning for vehicles column
vcchunk = []
for chunk2 in vc:
vcchunk_filter = chunk2[
(chunk2.Year.astype(int) >= 2010)&
(chunk2.Year.astype(int) <= 2017) &
(chunk2['Driver_Home_Area_Type'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Journey_Purpose_of_Driver'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Junction_Location'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Was_Vehicle_Left_Hand_Drive'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Hit_Object_in_Carriageway'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Skidding_and_Overturning'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Towing_and_Articulation'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Vehicle_Leaving_Carriageway'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Vehicle_Manoeuvre'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Vehicle_Type'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['X1st_Point_of_Impact'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Sex_of_Driver'] != "Data missing or out of range") &
(chunk2['Age_Band_of_Driver'] != "Data missing or out of range")
]
vcchunk.append(vcchunk_filter)
df2 = pd.concat(vcchunk)
#check columns
print("Accident's Columns:\n",df1.columns, "\n")
print("Vehicle's Columns:\n",df2.columns)
Accident's Columns:
Index(['Accident_Index', '1st_Road_Class', '1st_Road_Number', '2nd_Road_Class',
'2nd_Road_Number', 'Accident_Severity', 'Carriageway_Hazards', 'Date',
'Day_of_Week', 'Did_Police_Officer_Attend_Scene_of_Accident',
'Junction_Control', 'Junction_Detail', 'Latitude', 'Light_Conditions',
'Local_Authority_(District)', 'Local_Authority_(Highway)',
'Location_Easting_OSGR', 'Location_Northing_OSGR', 'Longitude',
'LSOA_of_Accident_Location', 'Number_of_Casualties',
'Number_of_Vehicles', 'Pedestrian_Crossing-Human_Control',
'Pedestrian_Crossing-Physical_Facilities', 'Police_Force',
'Road_Surface_Conditions', 'Road_Type', 'Special_Conditions_at_Site',
'Speed_limit', 'Time', 'Urban_or_Rural_Area', 'Weather_Conditions',
'Year', 'InScotland'],
dtype='object')
Vehicle's Columns:
Index(['Accident_Index', 'Age_Band_of_Driver', 'Age_of_Vehicle',
'Driver_Home_Area_Type', 'Driver_IMD_Decile', 'Engine_Capacity_.CC.',
'Hit_Object_in_Carriageway', 'Hit_Object_off_Carriageway',
'Journey_Purpose_of_Driver', 'Junction_Location', 'make', 'model',
'Propulsion_Code', 'Sex_of_Driver', 'Skidding_and_Overturning',
'Towing_and_Articulation', 'Vehicle_Leaving_Carriageway',
'Vehicle_Location.Restricted_Lane', 'Vehicle_Manoeuvre',
'Vehicle_Reference', 'Vehicle_Type', 'Was_Vehicle_Left_Hand_Drive',
'X1st_Point_of_Impact', 'Year'],
dtype='object')
print('Accident Shape', df1.shape)
print('Vehicle Shape',df2.shape)
Accident Shape (691195, 34) Vehicle Shape (1167198, 24)
#merge dataframes
df = pd.merge(df1,df2)
#check columns
print("Names of Combined Columns:\n",df.columns, "\n")
print("\nShape:\n",df.shape)
Names of Combined Columns:
Index(['Accident_Index', '1st_Road_Class', '1st_Road_Number', '2nd_Road_Class',
'2nd_Road_Number', 'Accident_Severity', 'Carriageway_Hazards', 'Date',
'Day_of_Week', 'Did_Police_Officer_Attend_Scene_of_Accident',
'Junction_Control', 'Junction_Detail', 'Latitude', 'Light_Conditions',
'Local_Authority_(District)', 'Local_Authority_(Highway)',
'Location_Easting_OSGR', 'Location_Northing_OSGR', 'Longitude',
'LSOA_of_Accident_Location', 'Number_of_Casualties',
'Number_of_Vehicles', 'Pedestrian_Crossing-Human_Control',
'Pedestrian_Crossing-Physical_Facilities', 'Police_Force',
'Road_Surface_Conditions', 'Road_Type', 'Special_Conditions_at_Site',
'Speed_limit', 'Time', 'Urban_or_Rural_Area', 'Weather_Conditions',
'Year', 'InScotland', 'Age_Band_of_Driver', 'Age_of_Vehicle',
'Driver_Home_Area_Type', 'Driver_IMD_Decile', 'Engine_Capacity_.CC.',
'Hit_Object_in_Carriageway', 'Hit_Object_off_Carriageway',
'Journey_Purpose_of_Driver', 'Junction_Location', 'make', 'model',
'Propulsion_Code', 'Sex_of_Driver', 'Skidding_and_Overturning',
'Towing_and_Articulation', 'Vehicle_Leaving_Carriageway',
'Vehicle_Location.Restricted_Lane', 'Vehicle_Manoeuvre',
'Vehicle_Reference', 'Vehicle_Type', 'Was_Vehicle_Left_Hand_Drive',
'X1st_Point_of_Impact'],
dtype='object')
Shape:
(720280, 56)
df.describe(include ='all')
| Accident_Index | 1st_Road_Class | 1st_Road_Number | 2nd_Road_Class | 2nd_Road_Number | Accident_Severity | Carriageway_Hazards | Date | Day_of_Week | Did_Police_Officer_Attend_Scene_of_Accident | ... | Sex_of_Driver | Skidding_and_Overturning | Towing_and_Articulation | Vehicle_Leaving_Carriageway | Vehicle_Location.Restricted_Lane | Vehicle_Manoeuvre | Vehicle_Reference | Vehicle_Type | Was_Vehicle_Left_Hand_Drive | X1st_Point_of_Impact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| count | 720280 | 720280 | 720280.000000 | 699431 | 710979.000000 | 720280 | 720280 | 720280 | 720280 | 720279.000000 | ... | 720280 | 720280 | 720280 | 720280 | 720269.000000 | 720280 | 720280.000000 | 720280 | 720280 | 720280 |
| unique | 488010 | 6 | NaN | 6 | NaN | 3 | 6 | 2557 | 7 | NaN | ... | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | NaN | 18 | NaN | 20 | 2 | 5 |
| top | 2016140142191 | A | NaN | Unclassified | NaN | Slight | None | 2015-05-13 | Friday | NaN | ... | Male | None | No tow/articulation | Did not leave carriageway | NaN | Going ahead other | NaN | Car | No | Front |
| freq | 15 | 365390 | NaN | 473098 | NaN | 626656 | 714068 | 515 | 119324 | NaN | ... | 484205 | 659742 | 713570 | 663463 | NaN | 314008 | NaN | 534189 | 719140 | 354438 |
| mean | NaN | NaN | 1051.470728 | NaN | 607.761499 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.147353 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.086026 | NaN | 1.506420 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| std | NaN | NaN | 1825.784600 | NaN | 1593.978070 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.357791 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.784117 | NaN | 0.644346 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| min | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.000000 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 1.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 25% | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.000000 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 1.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 50% | NaN | NaN | 191.000000 | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.000000 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 1.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| 75% | NaN | NaN | 900.000000 | NaN | 173.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 1.000000 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 0.000000 | NaN | 2.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
| max | NaN | NaN | 9999.000000 | NaN | 9999.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 3.000000 | ... | NaN | NaN | NaN | NaN | 9.000000 | NaN | 91.000000 | NaN | NaN | NaN |
11 rows × 56 columns
#check corr b/t Location_Easting_OSGR & Location_Northing_OSGR AND Longitude and Latitude
print(df['Location_Easting_OSGR'].corr(df['Longitude']))
print(df['Location_Northing_OSGR'].corr(df['Latitude']))
0.999425701544617 0.9999733124707393
#drop Location_Easting_OSGR & Location_Northing_OSGR
#because they are the similar to Latitude and Longitude
df = df.drop(['Location_Easting_OSGR', 'Location_Northing_OSGR'], axis=1)
df.shape
(720280, 54)
#standardize all column names to lowercase, and remove some characters
#for ease of use in querying
df.columns = map(str.lower, df.columns)
df.columns = df.columns.str.replace('.','')
df.columns = df.columns.str.replace('(','')
df.columns = df.columns.str.replace(')','')
#convert date/time to datetime datatype
df['date'] = pd.to_datetime((df['date']), format= "%Y-%m-%d")
#df.dtypes
#mistyped datatypes
df[['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident',
'driver_imd_decile','vehicle_reference',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane','1st_road_number',
'2nd_road_number','driver_imd_decile',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities',
'pedestrian_crossing-human_control']]= df[['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident',
'driver_imd_decile','vehicle_reference',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane','1st_road_number',
'2nd_road_number','driver_imd_decile',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities',
'pedestrian_crossing-human_control']].astype('object')
df.columns.to_series().groupby(df.dtypes).groups
{dtype('<M8[ns]'): Index(['date'], dtype='object'),
dtype('int64'): Index(['number_of_casualties', 'number_of_vehicles', 'year'], dtype='object'),
dtype('float64'): Index(['latitude', 'longitude', 'speed_limit', 'age_of_vehicle',
'engine_capacity_cc'],
dtype='object'),
dtype('O'): Index(['accident_index', '1st_road_class', '1st_road_number', '2nd_road_class',
'2nd_road_number', 'accident_severity', 'carriageway_hazards',
'day_of_week', 'did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident',
'junction_control', 'junction_detail', 'light_conditions',
'local_authority_district', 'local_authority_highway',
'lsoa_of_accident_location', 'pedestrian_crossing-human_control',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities', 'police_force',
'road_surface_conditions', 'road_type', 'special_conditions_at_site',
'time', 'urban_or_rural_area', 'weather_conditions', 'inscotland',
'age_band_of_driver', 'driver_home_area_type', 'driver_imd_decile',
'hit_object_in_carriageway', 'hit_object_off_carriageway',
'journey_purpose_of_driver', 'junction_location', 'make', 'model',
'propulsion_code', 'sex_of_driver', 'skidding_and_overturning',
'towing_and_articulation', 'vehicle_leaving_carriageway',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane', 'vehicle_manoeuvre',
'vehicle_reference', 'vehicle_type', 'was_vehicle_left_hand_drive',
'x1st_point_of_impact'],
dtype='object')}
df.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False)/df.shape[0]*100
driver_imd_decile 25.118565 age_of_vehicle 15.287805 model 11.636447 engine_capacity_cc 11.283251 propulsion_code 10.899928 make 5.846476 lsoa_of_accident_location 5.674738 2nd_road_class 2.894569 2nd_road_number 1.291303 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 0.006109 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 0.005276 time 0.004582 speed_limit 0.001805 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.001527 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 0.000139 day_of_week 0.000000 1st_road_class 0.000000 number_of_vehicles 0.000000 number_of_casualties 0.000000 1st_road_number 0.000000 longitude 0.000000 local_authority_highway 0.000000 local_authority_district 0.000000 light_conditions 0.000000 accident_severity 0.000000 latitude 0.000000 carriageway_hazards 0.000000 date 0.000000 junction_detail 0.000000 police_force 0.000000 junction_control 0.000000 x1st_point_of_impact 0.000000 road_surface_conditions 0.000000 road_type 0.000000 vehicle_type 0.000000 vehicle_reference 0.000000 vehicle_manoeuvre 0.000000 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.000000 towing_and_articulation 0.000000 skidding_and_overturning 0.000000 sex_of_driver 0.000000 junction_location 0.000000 journey_purpose_of_driver 0.000000 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.000000 hit_object_in_carriageway 0.000000 driver_home_area_type 0.000000 age_band_of_driver 0.000000 inscotland 0.000000 year 0.000000 weather_conditions 0.000000 urban_or_rural_area 0.000000 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 0.000000 special_conditions_at_site 0.000000 accident_index 0.000000 dtype: float64
# #2nd_road_class
df['2nd_road_class'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
Unclassified 65.682512 A 15.892292 C 7.591909 B 6.494558 Motorway 1.301716 A(M) 0.142445 Name: 2nd_road_class, dtype: float64
With 40% of non null being unclassified and 39% of the overall 2nd_road_class column being null, I have decided to drop it in it's entirely.
df = df.drop(['2nd_road_class'], axis=1)
#driver_imd_decile
df['driver_imd_decile'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
2.0 8.366469 3.0 8.281640 4.0 7.986339 1.0 7.888321 5.0 7.717554 6.0 7.530683 7.0 7.195674 8.0 6.948270 9.0 6.803049 10.0 6.163436 Name: driver_imd_decile, dtype: float64
Since the distribution of categories for 'driver_imd_decile seem very similar, I've decided not to use the mode but "method='ffill'"
df['driver_imd_decile'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
df['age_of_vehicle'].describe()
count 610165.000000 mean 7.567473 std 4.751567 min 1.000000 25% 4.000000 50% 7.000000 75% 11.000000 max 105.000000 Name: age_of_vehicle, dtype: float64
df['age_of_vehicle'].median()
7.0
Changing the nulls of "age of vehicle" to median, then creating it as a category
#fillna by 7
df['age_of_vehicle'].fillna(7, inplace=True)
#group age_of_vehicle
#1=0-3, 2=3-5, 3=5-8, 4=8-11, 5=
def fixedvehicleage(age):
if age>=0 and age<=120:
return age
else:
return np.nan
df['age_of_vehicle'] = df['age_of_vehicle'].apply(fixedvehicleage)
df['age_of_vehicle'] = pd.cut(df['age_of_vehicle'],
[0,2,5,8,11,14,17,120], labels=['1', '2', '3','4','5','6','7'])
#model
df['model'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
MISSING 0.743183
KA 0.336675
CLIO DYNAMIQUE 16V 0.279058
FIESTA ZETEC 0.247681
SPRINTER 313 CDI 0.236158
206 LX 0.220331
PUNTO ACTIVE 0.212279
CLIO EXPRESSION 16V 0.199783
YBR 125 0.194785
FIESTA FINESSE 0.177570
MINI COOPER 0.175904
KA COLLECTION 0.174793
CORSA CLUB 12V 0.160910
MICRA S 0.160493
FIESTA ZETEC CLIMATE 0.158827
CORSA CLUB 16V 0.158272
PUNTO ACTIVE 8V 0.141889
MINI ONE 0.141334
KA STYLE 0.140640
FIESTA STYLE 0.140223
FIESTA LX 0.140084
FOCUS ZETEC TDCI 0.139113
107 URBAN 0.137308
CORSA SXI 0.137308
FOCUS ZETEC 100 0.136614
ASTRA CLUB 8V 0.136058
SPRINTER 311 CDI LWB 0.133837
ZAFIRA EXCLUSIV 0.132032
FOCUS ZETEC 0.125784
206 LOOK 0.124535
...
325 TDS SE TOURING AUTO 0.000139
COMBO 2300 L2H1 CDTI SPORTIVE 0.000139
6 KUMANO D 0.000139
V70 T S AUTO 0.000139
THUNDERBIRD LT 0.000139
420D GRAN COUPE SPORT AUTO 0.000139
ZR + 120 0.000139
407 ST HDI 0.000139
T-SPORTER T30 180 TDI LWB 0.000139
A5 S LINE BLACK EDT TFSI QU 0.000139
ZAFIRA SRI CDTI 8V A 0.000139
C3 RHYTHM HDI 16V 0.000139
C230 K SPORT EDITION 0.000139
C50LA-E 0.000139
208 ACTIVE S-A 0.000139
C200 AMG LINE PREMIUM + AUTO 0.000139
ORION LX 0.000139
3.5 LITRE 0.000139
CLIO EXPRESSION + 16V QS5 0.000139
TRANSPORTER SD SWB 0.000139
CORSARO 1200 VELOCE 0.000139
CLK 200 KOMP. AVANTGARDE 0.000139
BORA S TDI AUTO 0.000139
GTV V6 LUSSO 24V 0.000139
A4 SLINE SPEC ED TDI QUAT 0.000139
A5 S LINE SPECIAL ED TFSI C 0.000139
306 D 0.000139
ESPACE EXECUTIVE TD 0.000139
PRELUDE 4WS AUTO 0.000139
SCENIC XMOD D-QUE TT NRG DC 0.000139
Name: model, Length: 28664, dtype: float64
df['model'].describe()
count 636465 unique 28664 top MISSING freq 5353 Name: model, dtype: object
Knowing that there are 28824 unique models for the model column I have decided to use the ffill method on it as well.
df['model'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
Note: A lot of the values of "model' are labeled as "missing". I do not want to change these because the model could have actually been missing from the car from the accident or it could not be recognizable at the time of the accident.
#engine_capacity_cc
df['engine_capacity_cc'].describe()
count 639009.000000 mean 1848.094816 std 1573.057956 min 2.000000 25% 1248.000000 50% 1598.000000 75% 1995.000000 max 91000.000000 Name: engine_capacity_cc, dtype: float64
I am going to handle both outliers and the null values of engine_capacity_cc using the ideals of quantiles and the interquartile range (IQR).
#first I'm going to handle both ends of outliers.
#(determine the min and max cuttoffs for detecting the outlier)
q75, q25 = np.percentile(df['engine_capacity_cc'].dropna(), [75 ,25])
iqr = q75 - q25
ecmin = q25 - (iqr*1.5)
ecmax = q75 + (iqr*1.5)
print(ecmax)
print(ecmin)
3115.5 127.5
To explain, what I am going to do is use the ecmax number for the maximum engine_capacity_cc and ecmin for my engine_capacity_cc. Then I'm going to take the mean of those and use it as my fillna.
df = df[df['engine_capacity_cc']<=ecmax]
df = df[df['engine_capacity_cc']>=ecmin]
df['engine_capacity_cc'].hist(bins=20)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
I can accept this distribution and will now check and handle their nulls
#check values of 'engine_capacity_cc'
df['engine_capacity_cc'].describe()
count 569057.000000 mean 1633.351432 std 473.765085 min 128.000000 25% 1299.000000 50% 1598.000000 75% 1968.000000 max 3110.000000 Name: engine_capacity_cc, dtype: float64
df['engine_capacity_cc'].mean()
1633.3514322818276
Going to round this mean value
df['engine_capacity_cc'].fillna(1652, inplace=True)
Note: After doing the above null fixes, propulsion_code dropped from having 10% null values to 0. (see below). I will continue on and fix lsoa_of_accident_location then drop the rest of the null values with are all <5%.
df.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False)/df.shape[0]*100
lsoa_of_accident_location 5.902045 2nd_road_number 1.317618 make 0.063087 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 0.005448 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 0.005096 time 0.003866 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.001406 speed_limit 0.001230 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 0.000176 date 0.000000 accident_severity 0.000000 road_type 0.000000 road_surface_conditions 0.000000 police_force 0.000000 1st_road_class 0.000000 1st_road_number 0.000000 number_of_vehicles 0.000000 number_of_casualties 0.000000 longitude 0.000000 day_of_week 0.000000 local_authority_highway 0.000000 local_authority_district 0.000000 light_conditions 0.000000 special_conditions_at_site 0.000000 junction_detail 0.000000 carriageway_hazards 0.000000 junction_control 0.000000 latitude 0.000000 x1st_point_of_impact 0.000000 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 0.000000 urban_or_rural_area 0.000000 vehicle_type 0.000000 vehicle_reference 0.000000 vehicle_manoeuvre 0.000000 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.000000 towing_and_articulation 0.000000 skidding_and_overturning 0.000000 sex_of_driver 0.000000 propulsion_code 0.000000 model 0.000000 junction_location 0.000000 journey_purpose_of_driver 0.000000 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.000000 hit_object_in_carriageway 0.000000 engine_capacity_cc 0.000000 driver_imd_decile 0.000000 driver_home_area_type 0.000000 age_of_vehicle 0.000000 age_band_of_driver 0.000000 inscotland 0.000000 year 0.000000 weather_conditions 0.000000 accident_index 0.000000 dtype: float64
# #lsoa_of_accident_location
df['lsoa_of_accident_location'].value_counts()
E01032739 440
E01004736 412
E01000004 410
E01018648 303
E01004689 261
E01002444 231
E01030458 229
E01011365 213
E01016012 203
E01012851 192
E01024335 188
E01010521 185
E01011107 184
E01007913 178
E01023732 176
E01008440 176
E01013607 176
E01009200 175
E01016952 173
E01022677 173
E01031587 171
E01031583 171
E01032740 170
E01023584 168
E01008397 167
E01007611 166
E01003482 165
E01018337 164
E01005131 163
E01024721 162
...
E01020417 1
E01001776 1
E01001842 1
E01005410 1
E01010078 1
E01032493 1
E01024642 1
E01013208 1
E01029822 1
E01030386 1
E01014887 1
E01028665 1
E01012928 1
E01030956 1
E01028815 1
E01033056 1
E01026820 1
E01014938 1
E01001967 1
E01018642 1
E01018682 1
E01024749 1
E01031616 1
W01000170 1
W01000305 1
E01003999 1
E01012436 1
E01021050 1
E01028837 1
W01001389 1
Name: lsoa_of_accident_location, Length: 33936, dtype: int64
df['lsoa_of_accident_location'].describe()
count 535471 unique 33936 top E01032739 freq 440 Name: lsoa_of_accident_location, dtype: object
With 35061 unique variable and a high count amount the top variables I am deciding to do ffill again.
df['lsoa_of_accident_location'].fillna(method='ffill', inplace=True)
#### Check nulls for again
df.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False)/df.shape[0]*100
2nd_road_number 1.317618 make 0.063087 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 0.005448 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 0.005096 time 0.003866 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.001406 speed_limit 0.001230 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 0.000176 carriageway_hazards 0.000000 longitude 0.000000 road_type 0.000000 road_surface_conditions 0.000000 police_force 0.000000 1st_road_class 0.000000 1st_road_number 0.000000 number_of_vehicles 0.000000 number_of_casualties 0.000000 lsoa_of_accident_location 0.000000 local_authority_highway 0.000000 date 0.000000 local_authority_district 0.000000 light_conditions 0.000000 special_conditions_at_site 0.000000 junction_detail 0.000000 accident_severity 0.000000 junction_control 0.000000 day_of_week 0.000000 latitude 0.000000 x1st_point_of_impact 0.000000 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 0.000000 urban_or_rural_area 0.000000 vehicle_type 0.000000 vehicle_reference 0.000000 vehicle_manoeuvre 0.000000 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.000000 towing_and_articulation 0.000000 skidding_and_overturning 0.000000 sex_of_driver 0.000000 propulsion_code 0.000000 model 0.000000 junction_location 0.000000 journey_purpose_of_driver 0.000000 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.000000 hit_object_in_carriageway 0.000000 engine_capacity_cc 0.000000 driver_imd_decile 0.000000 driver_home_area_type 0.000000 age_of_vehicle 0.000000 age_band_of_driver 0.000000 inscotland 0.000000 year 0.000000 weather_conditions 0.000000 accident_index 0.000000 dtype: float64
Dropping the remaining nulls that are <1%.
#drop the remaining nulls that are <1%
df.dropna(inplace=True)
#last check
df.isnull().sum().sort_values(ascending=False)/df.shape[0]*100
x1st_point_of_impact 0.0 speed_limit 0.0 road_type 0.0 road_surface_conditions 0.0 police_force 0.0 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 0.0 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 0.0 number_of_vehicles 0.0 number_of_casualties 0.0 lsoa_of_accident_location 0.0 longitude 0.0 local_authority_highway 0.0 local_authority_district 0.0 light_conditions 0.0 latitude 0.0 junction_detail 0.0 junction_control 0.0 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 0.0 day_of_week 0.0 date 0.0 carriageway_hazards 0.0 accident_severity 0.0 2nd_road_number 0.0 1st_road_number 0.0 1st_road_class 0.0 special_conditions_at_site 0.0 time 0.0 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 0.0 urban_or_rural_area 0.0 vehicle_type 0.0 vehicle_reference 0.0 vehicle_manoeuvre 0.0 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.0 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.0 towing_and_articulation 0.0 skidding_and_overturning 0.0 sex_of_driver 0.0 propulsion_code 0.0 model 0.0 make 0.0 junction_location 0.0 journey_purpose_of_driver 0.0 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.0 hit_object_in_carriageway 0.0 engine_capacity_cc 0.0 driver_imd_decile 0.0 driver_home_area_type 0.0 age_of_vehicle 0.0 age_band_of_driver 0.0 inscotland 0.0 year 0.0 weather_conditions 0.0 accident_index 0.0 dtype: float64
df.shape
(561135, 53)
df.info()
<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'> Int64Index: 561135 entries, 0 to 720279 Data columns (total 53 columns): accident_index 561135 non-null object 1st_road_class 561135 non-null object 1st_road_number 561135 non-null object 2nd_road_number 561135 non-null object accident_severity 561135 non-null object carriageway_hazards 561135 non-null object date 561135 non-null datetime64[ns] day_of_week 561135 non-null object did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 561135 non-null object junction_control 561135 non-null object junction_detail 561135 non-null object latitude 561135 non-null float64 light_conditions 561135 non-null object local_authority_district 561135 non-null object local_authority_highway 561135 non-null object longitude 561135 non-null float64 lsoa_of_accident_location 561135 non-null object number_of_casualties 561135 non-null int64 number_of_vehicles 561135 non-null int64 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 561135 non-null object pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 561135 non-null object police_force 561135 non-null object road_surface_conditions 561135 non-null object road_type 561135 non-null object special_conditions_at_site 561135 non-null object speed_limit 561135 non-null float64 time 561135 non-null object urban_or_rural_area 561135 non-null object weather_conditions 561135 non-null object year 561135 non-null int64 inscotland 561135 non-null object age_band_of_driver 561135 non-null object age_of_vehicle 561135 non-null category driver_home_area_type 561135 non-null object driver_imd_decile 561135 non-null float64 engine_capacity_cc 561135 non-null float64 hit_object_in_carriageway 561135 non-null object hit_object_off_carriageway 561135 non-null object journey_purpose_of_driver 561135 non-null object junction_location 561135 non-null object make 561135 non-null object model 561135 non-null object propulsion_code 561135 non-null object sex_of_driver 561135 non-null object skidding_and_overturning 561135 non-null object towing_and_articulation 561135 non-null object vehicle_leaving_carriageway 561135 non-null object vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 561135 non-null object vehicle_manoeuvre 561135 non-null object vehicle_reference 561135 non-null object vehicle_type 561135 non-null object was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 561135 non-null object x1st_point_of_impact 561135 non-null object dtypes: category(1), datetime64[ns](1), float64(5), int64(3), object(43) memory usage: 227.4+ MB
#detecting outliers of numerical columns (all floats/ints excluding lat/long and year)
df_num = df[['engine_capacity_cc','number_of_casualties','number_of_vehicles','speed_limit']]
df_num.hist( bins=25, grid=False, figsize=(12,8))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
Column 'speed_limit' seems ok and was previously altered 'engine_capacity_cc'. However, 'number_of_casualties', and 'number_of_vehicles',will be evaluated.
# #number_of_casualties
df['number_of_casualties'].value_counts()
1 391938 2 113736 3 35451 4 12511 5 4621 6 1739 7 599 8 243 9 146 10 52 11 29 12 28 13 15 16 10 14 4 15 3 17 3 24 2 21 2 19 1 22 1 43 1 Name: number_of_casualties, dtype: int64
#create casualities grouping
def casualities(num_cas):
if num_cas >=1 and num_cas <2:
return "1"
elif num_cas >=2 and num_cas <3:
return "2"
elif num_cas >=3 and num_cas <4:
return "3"
elif num_cas >= 4 and num_cas <5:
return "4"
elif num_cas >= 5:
return "5+"
#apply function
df['number_of_casualties']= df['number_of_casualties'].apply(casualities)
#number_of_casualties
df['number_of_casualties'].value_counts()
1 391938 2 113736 3 35451 4 12511 5+ 7499 Name: number_of_casualties, dtype: int64
df['propulsion_code'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
Petrol 60.540155 Heavy oil 38.544913 Hybrid electric 0.782699 Gas/Bi-fuel 0.094808 Petrol/Gas (LPG) 0.021207 Electric diesel 0.013188 Gas 0.002317 New fuel technology 0.000356 Gas Diesel 0.000178 Fuel cells 0.000178 Name: propulsion_code, dtype: float64
#Clean the values for Propulsion Code.
df['propulsion_code'] = df['propulsion_code'].replace(to_replace="Gas", value="Petrol")
df['propulsion_code'] = df['propulsion_code'].replace(to_replace="Gas/Bi-fuel", value="Bio-fuel")
df['propulsion_code'] = df['propulsion_code'].replace(to_replace="Petrol/Gas (LPG)", value="LPG Petrol")
df['propulsion_code'] = df['propulsion_code'].replace(to_replace="Gas Diesel", value="Diesel")
df['propulsion_code'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
Petrol 60.542472 Heavy oil 38.544913 Hybrid electric 0.782699 Bio-fuel 0.094808 LPG Petrol 0.021207 Electric diesel 0.013188 New fuel technology 0.000356 Diesel 0.000178 Fuel cells 0.000178 Name: propulsion_code, dtype: float64
# #unique values
df.nunique().sort_values(ascending=False)
accident_index 412838 longitude 356283 latitude 346962 lsoa_of_accident_location 33895 model 25688 2nd_road_number 5781 1st_road_number 5088 date 2557 time 1439 engine_capacity_cc 1023 local_authority_district 380 make 226 local_authority_highway 207 police_force 51 vehicle_manoeuvre 18 vehicle_type 16 number_of_vehicles 15 vehicle_reference 15 hit_object_in_carriageway 12 hit_object_off_carriageway 12 age_band_of_driver 11 driver_imd_decile 10 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 10 weather_conditions 9 junction_location 9 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 9 junction_detail 9 propulsion_code 9 special_conditions_at_site 8 day_of_week 7 journey_purpose_of_driver 7 year 7 age_of_vehicle 7 speed_limit 7 carriageway_hazards 6 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities 6 towing_and_articulation 6 1st_road_class 6 skidding_and_overturning 6 junction_control 5 x1st_point_of_impact 5 light_conditions 5 number_of_casualties 5 road_surface_conditions 5 road_type 5 pedestrian_crossing-human_control 3 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident 3 accident_severity 3 driver_home_area_type 3 sex_of_driver 3 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive 2 urban_or_rural_area 2 inscotland 2 dtype: int64
df['date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['date'])
df['month'] = df ['date'].apply(lambda time: time.month)
#creating a weekend feature that includes Friday-Sunday
df['weekend']= np.where(df['day_of_week'].isin(['Friday', 'Saturday', 'Sunday']), 1, 0)
#create time of day feature with Morning Rush, Day, Noon Rush, Afternoon, After Work Rush, Night
#time of day dictionary
timeofdaygroups = {1: "Morning Rush (6-10)",
2: "Day (10-12)",
3: "Lunch Rush (12-14)",
4: "Afternoon (14-16)",
5: "After Work Rush (16-18)",
6: "Evening (18-22)",
7: "Night (22-6)"}
#pull time data and create hour column
df['hour'] = df['time'].str[0:2]
#convert to numeric
df['hour'] = pd.to_numeric(df['hour'])
#convert to integer
df['hour'] = df['hour'].astype('int')
#create time_of_day grouping
def daygroup(hour):
if hour >= 6 and hour < 10:
return "1"
elif hour >= 10 and hour < 12:
return "2"
elif hour >= 12 and hour < 14:
return "3"
elif hour >= 14 and hour < 16:
return "4"
elif hour >= 16 and hour < 18:
return "5"
elif hour >= 18 and hour < 22:
return "6"
else:
return "7"
#apply function
#time of day function
df['time_of_day']= df['hour'].apply(daygroup)
df[['weekend','day_of_week','time', 'time_of_day']].tail(10)
| weekend | day_of_week | time | time_of_day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 720270 | 0 | Wednesday | 08:45 | 1 |
| 720271 | 0 | Wednesday | 08:45 | 1 |
| 720272 | 0 | Tuesday | 18:12 | 6 |
| 720273 | 1 | Sunday | 11:00 | 2 |
| 720274 | 1 | Sunday | 11:00 | 2 |
| 720275 | 0 | Monday | 16:32 | 5 |
| 720276 | 0 | Monday | 16:32 | 5 |
| 720277 | 1 | Friday | 06:45 | 1 |
| 720278 | 0 | Tuesday | 16:45 | 5 |
| 720279 | 0 | Tuesday | 16:45 | 5 |
#vehicle_type
df['vehicle_type'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
Car 86.052020 Van / Goods 3.5 tonnes mgw or under 5.481212 Motorcycle over 500cc 3.999929 Taxi/Private hire car 2.932628 Motorcycle over 125cc and up to 500cc 0.881428 Motorcycle 125cc and under 0.178567 Minibus (8 - 16 passenger seats) 0.140251 Other vehicle 0.131519 Goods over 3.5t. and under 7.5t 0.083937 Motorcycle 50cc and under 0.043840 Bus or coach (17 or more pass seats) 0.024771 Goods vehicle - unknown weight 0.015326 Goods 7.5 tonnes mgw and over 0.013188 Motorcycle - unknown cc 0.013009 Agricultural vehicle 0.007128 Electric motorcycle 0.001247 Name: vehicle_type, dtype: float64
I want to condense the vehicle type variables.
#motorcycles
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Motorcycle over 500cc",
value="Motorcycle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace=
"Motorcycle over 125cc and up to 500cc",
value="Motorcycle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Motorcycle 125cc and under",
value="Motorcycle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Motorcycle 50cc and under",
value="Motorcycle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Electric motorcycle",
value="Motorcycle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Motorcycle - unknown cc",
value="Motorcycle")
#Goods_vehicle
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace=
"Van / Goods 3.5 tonnes mgw or under",
value="Goods Vehicle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Goods over 3.5t. and under 7.5t",
value="Goods Vehicle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Goods vehicle - unknown weight",
value="Goods Vehicle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Goods 7.5 tonnes mgw and over",
value="Goods Vehicle")
#car
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Taxi/Private hire car",
value="Car")
#bus
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Minibus (8 - 16 passenger seats)",
value="Bus")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace=
"Bus or coach (17 or more pass seats)",
value="Bus")
#other vehicle
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Agricultural vehicle",
value="Other Vehicle")
df['vehicle_type'] = df['vehicle_type'].replace(to_replace="Other vehicle",
value="Other Vehicle")
#vehicle_type
df['vehicle_type'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
Car 88.984647 Goods Vehicle 5.593663 Motorcycle 5.118020 Bus 0.165023 Other Vehicle 0.138648 Name: vehicle_type, dtype: float64
Create more condense groups for age band of driver in order to deal with some potential outliers.
#age_band_of_driver
df['age_band_of_driver'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
26 - 35 22.598662 36 - 45 20.728345 46 - 55 17.551213 21 - 25 12.208827 56 - 65 10.373796 16 - 20 7.145696 66 - 75 5.624850 Over 75 3.757028 11 - 15 0.011049 6 - 10 0.000356 0 - 5 0.000178 Name: age_band_of_driver, dtype: float64
#I did this before hand because as "Over 75", it wouldnt convert in the codes below
df['age_band_of_driver']=df['age_band_of_driver'].replace("Over 75","75-100")
age1 = ["0 - 5", "6 - 10", "11 - 15"]
age2 = ["16 - 20","21 - 25"]
age3 = ["26 - 35","36 - 45"]
age4 = ["46 - 55", "56 - 65"]
age5 = ["66 - 75", "75-100"]
#over 75 wouldnt work in the string so I did it separately
for (row, col) in df.iterrows():
if str.lower(col.age_band_of_driver) in age1:
df['age_band_of_driver'].replace(to_replace=col.age_band_of_driver,
value='Under 16', inplace=True)
if str.lower(col.age_band_of_driver) in age2:
df['age_band_of_driver'].replace(to_replace=col.age_band_of_driver,
value='16-25', inplace=True)
if str.lower(col.age_band_of_driver) in age3:
df['age_band_of_driver'].replace(to_replace=col.age_band_of_driver,
value='26-45', inplace=True)
if str.lower(col.age_band_of_driver) in age4:
df['age_band_of_driver'].replace(to_replace=col.age_band_of_driver,
value='46-65', inplace=True)
if str.lower(col.age_band_of_driver) in age5:
df['age_band_of_driver'].replace(to_replace=col.age_band_of_driver,
value='Over 65', inplace=True)
#age_band_of_driver
print("Distinct responses for age_band_of_driver:\n", set(df['age_band_of_driver']))
Distinct responses for age_band_of_driver:
{'Over 65', 'Under 16', '46-65', '26-45', '16-25'}
# number_of_vehicles
df['number_of_vehicles'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
2 72.944835 3 11.924403 1 11.570121 4 2.706122 5 0.582747 6 0.167874 7 0.059166 8 0.021385 11 0.005881 9 0.005881 10 0.004277 14 0.002317 13 0.002139 16 0.001782 12 0.001069 Name: number_of_vehicles, dtype: float64
#group number_of_vehicles
def vehicles(num_veh):
if num_veh >=1 and num_veh <2:
return "1"
elif num_veh >=2 and num_veh <3:
return "2"
elif num_veh >=3 and num_veh <4:
return "3"
elif num_veh >= 4:
return "4+"
#apply function
df['number_of_vehicles']= df['number_of_vehicles'].apply(vehicles)
# number_of_vehicles
df['number_of_vehicles'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
2 72.944835 3 11.924403 1 11.570121 4+ 3.560640 Name: number_of_vehicles, dtype: float64
df['number_of_vehicles'].dtypes
dtype('O')
df['number_of_vehicles']=df['number_of_vehicles'].astype('object')
#creating seasons column for ML
#creating season column
def getSeason(month):
if (month == 12 or month == 1 or month == 2):
return "winter"
elif(month == 3 or month == 4 or month == 5):
return "spring"
elif(month == 6 or month== 7 or month == 8):
return "summer"
else:
return "fall"
df['season'] = df['month'].apply(getSeason)
# number_of_vehicles
df['season'].value_counts()/df.shape[0]*100
fall 27.065858 summer 25.502241 spring 24.624912 winter 22.806989 Name: season, dtype: float64
#go back to engine capacity CC and crete groups
df.engine_capacity_cc.hist()
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x2b326feef60>
def enginecap(eng_cc):
if eng_cc <=1500:
return "small engine cc"
if eng_cc >1500 and eng_cc <=2000:
return "medium engine cc"
if eng_cc >2000:
return "large engine cc"
df['engine_capacity_cc_size'] = df['engine_capacity_cc'].apply(enginecap)
df.engine_capacity_cc_size.value_counts()
medium engine cc 259881 small engine cc 231031 large engine cc 70223 Name: engine_capacity_cc_size, dtype: int64
#Put above pickle in next full run
#create new column for Machine Learning and Visualization with Not Serious and Serious
df['accident_seriousness'] = df['accident_severity']
df['accident_seriousness'] = df['accident_seriousness'].replace(to_replace="Slight",
value="Not Serious")
df['accident_seriousness'] = df['accident_seriousness'].replace(to_replace="Serious",
value="Serious")
df['accident_seriousness'] = df['accident_seriousness'].replace(to_replace="Fatal",
value="Serious")
df.shape
(561135, 60)
df.accident_seriousness.value_counts()
Not Serious 492804 Serious 68331 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: int64
#pickling everything to speed up restarting
df.to_pickle("df.pkl")
#import pickled file
df = pd.read_pickle("df.pkl")
df.head()
| accident_index | 1st_road_class | 1st_road_number | 2nd_road_number | accident_severity | carriageway_hazards | date | day_of_week | did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident | junction_control | ... | vehicle_type | was_vehicle_left_hand_drive | x1st_point_of_impact | month | weekend | hour | time_of_day | season | engine_capacity_cc_size | accident_seriousness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 201001BS70003 | B | 302 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | ... | Goods Vehicle | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 1 | 201001BS70004 | A | 402 | 4204 | Slight | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 3 | 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 4 | 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 5 | 201001BS70008 | A | 3217 | 3220 | Slight | None | 2010-01-04 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
5 rows × 60 columns
accidentsperyear = df.groupby(['year'])['accident_index'].count()
# prepare plot
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.figure(figsize=(10,5))
colors = sns.color_palette("plasma", n_colors=7)
sns.barplot(accidentsperyear.index,accidentsperyear.values, palette=colors)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=True)
plt.title("Accidents Per Year",fontsize=20,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nYear", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.savefig('accidentsperyear.png')
plt.tight_layout()
accidentspermonth = df.groupby(['month'])['accident_index'].count()
# prepare plot
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.figure(figsize=(20,10))
colors = sns.color_palette("plasma_r", n_colors=12)
mt=sns.barplot(accidentspermonth.index,accidentspermonth.values, palette=colors)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=True)
#ax is the axes instance
group_labels = ['Jan', 'Feb','Mar','Apr','May','June','July','Aug','Sept','Oct','Nov','Dec' ]
mt.set_xticklabels(group_labels)
plt.title("Accidents Per Month",fontsize=20,fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=18)
plt.yticks(fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel("\nMonth", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.savefig('accidentspermonth.png')
plt.tight_layout()
weekdays = ['Monday', 'Tuesday','Wednesday','Thursday', 'Friday', 'Saturday', 'Sunday']
accweekday = df.groupby(['year', 'day_of_week']).size()
accweekday = accweekday.rename_axis(['year', 'day_of_week'])\
.unstack('day_of_week')\
.reindex(columns=weekdays)
plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
sns.heatmap(accweekday, cmap='plasma_r')
plt.title('\nAccidents by Weekday per Year\n', fontsize=14, fontweight='bold')
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel('')
plt.ylabel('')
plt.savefig('accidentsbyweekdayperyear.png')
plt.show()
Fridays are the day of the week where the most accidents occur.
accidentsperseason = df.groupby(['season'])['accident_index'].count()
seaord=['spring', 'summer', 'fall','winter']
# prepare plot
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
sns.barplot(accidentsperseason.index,accidentsperseason.values, order=seaord,
saturation=1, palette='magma_r')
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=True)
plt.title("Accidents Per Season",fontsize=20,fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel("\nSeason", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig('accidentsperseason.png')
#"Morning Rush (6-10)", "Day (10-12)", "Lunch Rush (12-14)","Afternoon (14-16)",
#"After Work Rush (16-18)", "Evening (18-22)", "Night (22-6)"
timeofdaygroups = {'1': "Morning Rush",
'2': "Day",
'3': "Lunch Rush",
'4': "Afternoon",
'5': "After Work Rush",
'6': "Evening",
'7': "Night"}
df['time_of_day']=df['time_of_day'].map(timeofdaygroups)
accidentspertod = df.groupby(['time_of_day'])['accident_index'].count()
# prepare plot
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
tod=["Morning Rush", "Day", "Lunch Rush", "Afternoon",
"After Work Rush", "Evening", "Night"]
sns.barplot(accidentspertod.index,accidentspertod.values, order=tod, palette='rainbow')
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=True)
plt.title("Accidents Per Time of Day",fontsize=20,fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=12)
plt.xlabel("", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig('accidentspertod.png')
%%HTML
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According to the forecasting above, traffic accidents will be slightly lower than years before but following similar trends throughout the months.
Below is a screenshot of the above forecasting. I put this here just in case there is trouble viewing it. If you would like to view the actual worksheet for it, please click here.
For correlation I used both Pearson and Spearman just in case there would be discrepancies. The order may have slightly varied but the "highest" correlated remained the same.
#correlation by accident severity pearson
corrdf=df.apply(LabelEncoder().fit_transform)
sc = StandardScaler()
corrdf = sc.fit_transform(corrdf)
corrdf=pd.DataFrame(data=corrdf,columns=df.columns)
corr=corrdf.corr()['accident_seriousness']
corr[np.argsort(corr,axis=0)[::-1]]
accident_seriousness 1.000000 vehicle_type 0.133941 x1st_point_of_impact 0.076099 speed_limit 0.065554 skidding_and_overturning 0.059322 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.058977 sex_of_driver 0.054505 lsoa_of_accident_location 0.048548 number_of_casualties 0.043294 age_band_of_driver 0.039851 junction_control 0.037966 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.036040 time_of_day 0.026101 model 0.022808 accident_index 0.022391 junction_location 0.019548 road_type 0.019443 engine_capacity_cc_size 0.019305 driver_imd_decile 0.017195 weekend 0.017001 date 0.016821 propulsion_code 0.016685 junction_detail 0.016134 year 0.016002 age_of_vehicle 0.014322 inscotland 0.012642 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.011370 month 0.006929 latitude 0.006853 carriageway_hazards 0.004003 1st_road_number 0.003862 towing_and_articulation 0.003658 time 0.003062 hour 0.002450 local_authority_district 0.002129 pedestrian_crossing-human_control -0.001036 day_of_week -0.001781 make -0.002377 special_conditions_at_site -0.002652 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive -0.003057 1st_road_class -0.004179 journey_purpose_of_driver -0.005085 local_authority_highway -0.005379 season -0.007647 2nd_road_number -0.008978 police_force -0.009640 hit_object_in_carriageway -0.010963 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities -0.012054 light_conditions -0.012499 road_surface_conditions -0.015441 longitude -0.024353 weather_conditions -0.029648 vehicle_reference -0.037848 driver_home_area_type -0.041281 engine_capacity_cc -0.047446 vehicle_manoeuvre -0.048098 urban_or_rural_area -0.065074 number_of_vehicles -0.066120 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident -0.086731 accident_severity -0.973745 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: float64
corr_spear=corrdf.corr(method='spearman')['accident_seriousness']
corr_spear[np.argsort(corr_spear,axis=0)[::-1]]
accident_seriousness 1.000000 vehicle_type 0.114374 vehicle_leaving_carriageway 0.071079 x1st_point_of_impact 0.067697 speed_limit 0.062779 skidding_and_overturning 0.059746 sex_of_driver 0.054629 lsoa_of_accident_location 0.048538 junction_control 0.041690 age_band_of_driver 0.037758 hit_object_off_carriageway 0.034738 road_type 0.028215 time_of_day 0.026387 junction_location 0.024224 junction_detail 0.024051 accident_index 0.022667 number_of_casualties 0.022535 engine_capacity_cc_size 0.022157 model 0.021979 date 0.017136 weekend 0.017001 driver_imd_decile 0.016911 propulsion_code 0.016522 year 0.016282 inscotland 0.012642 vehicle_locationrestricted_lane 0.010124 age_of_vehicle 0.009042 time 0.007971 hour 0.007432 month 0.006572 1st_road_number 0.006437 latitude 0.006432 towing_and_articulation 0.004320 carriageway_hazards 0.003980 local_authority_district 0.001801 make 0.000794 special_conditions_at_site 0.000097 journey_purpose_of_driver -0.000857 day_of_week -0.001860 pedestrian_crossing-human_control -0.001870 was_vehicle_left_hand_drive -0.003057 1st_road_class -0.003177 local_authority_highway -0.005600 season -0.007485 police_force -0.011075 road_surface_conditions -0.015850 pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities -0.016310 hit_object_in_carriageway -0.017504 light_conditions -0.019421 longitude -0.024395 2nd_road_number -0.027880 weather_conditions -0.028520 engine_capacity_cc -0.036678 driver_home_area_type -0.041308 vehicle_manoeuvre -0.046600 vehicle_reference -0.049230 urban_or_rural_area -0.065074 number_of_vehicles -0.078513 did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident -0.086918 accident_severity -0.999548 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: float64
Looking at this I wanted to visualize some of the higher pos/negative correlations against accident severity.
Before these visualizations were done, I wanted to be sure that the visualizations were of some importance to accident_seriousness. For this, the chi-squared test was used.
"""chisquare algorithm from
http://www.insightsbot.com/blog/2AeuRL/chi-square-feature-selection-in-python """
class ChiSquare:
def __init__(self, dataframe):
self.df = dataframe
self.p = None #P-Value
self.chi2 = None #Chi Test Statistic
self.dof = None
self.dfObserved = None
self.dfExpected = None
def _print_chisquare_result(self, colX, alpha):
result = ""
if self.p<alpha:
result="The column {0} is IMPORTANT for Prediction".format(colX)
else:
result="The column {0} is NOT an important predictor. (Discard {0} from model)".format(colX)
print(result)
def TestIndependence(self,colX,colY, alpha=0.05):
X = self.df[colX].astype(str)
Y = self.df[colY].astype(str)
self.dfObserved = pd.crosstab(Y,X)
chi2, p, dof, expected = stats.chi2_contingency(self.dfObserved.values)
self.p = p
self.chi2 = chi2
self.dof = dof
self.dfExpected = pd.DataFrame(expected, columns=self.dfObserved.columns,
index = self.dfObserved.index)
self._print_chisquare_result(colX,alpha)
#Initialize ChiSquare Class
cT = ChiSquare(df)
#Feature Selection
testColumns = ['accident_index', '1st_road_class', '1st_road_number','2nd_road_number',
'carriageway_hazards', 'date', 'day_of_week',
'did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident','junction_control',
'junction_detail', 'latitude', 'light_conditions', 'local_authority_district',
'local_authority_highway', 'longitude','lsoa_of_accident_location',
'number_of_casualties', 'number_of_vehicles', 'pedestrian_crossing-human_control',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities', 'police_force','road_surface_conditions',
'road_type', 'special_conditions_at_site', 'speed_limit', 'time',
'urban_or_rural_area', 'weather_conditions', 'year', 'inscotland',
'age_band_of_driver', 'age_of_vehicle', 'driver_home_area_type',
'driver_imd_decile', 'engine_capacity_cc','hit_object_in_carriageway',
'hit_object_off_carriageway', 'journey_purpose_of_driver', 'junction_location',
'make', 'model','propulsion_code', 'sex_of_driver', 'skidding_and_overturning',
'towing_and_articulation', 'vehicle_leaving_carriageway',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane', 'vehicle_manoeuvre','vehicle_reference',
'vehicle_type', 'was_vehicle_left_hand_drive', 'x1st_point_of_impact', 'month',
'weekend', 'hour', 'time_of_day','season', 'engine_capacity_cc_size']
for var in testColumns:
cT.TestIndependence(colX=var,colY="accident_seriousness" )
The column accident_index is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column 1st_road_class is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column 1st_road_number is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column 2nd_road_number is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column carriageway_hazards is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column date is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column day_of_week is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column junction_control is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column junction_detail is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column latitude is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column light_conditions is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column local_authority_district is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column local_authority_highway is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column longitude is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column lsoa_of_accident_location is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column number_of_casualties is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column number_of_vehicles is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column pedestrian_crossing-human_control is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column police_force is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column road_surface_conditions is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column road_type is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column special_conditions_at_site is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column speed_limit is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column time is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column urban_or_rural_area is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column weather_conditions is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column year is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column inscotland is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column age_band_of_driver is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column age_of_vehicle is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column driver_home_area_type is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column driver_imd_decile is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column engine_capacity_cc is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column hit_object_in_carriageway is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column hit_object_off_carriageway is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column journey_purpose_of_driver is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column junction_location is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column make is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column model is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column propulsion_code is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column sex_of_driver is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column skidding_and_overturning is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column towing_and_articulation is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column vehicle_leaving_carriageway is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column vehicle_locationrestricted_lane is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column vehicle_manoeuvre is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column vehicle_reference is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column vehicle_type is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column was_vehicle_left_hand_drive is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column x1st_point_of_impact is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column month is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column weekend is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column hour is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column time_of_day is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column season is IMPORTANT for Prediction The column engine_capacity_cc_size is IMPORTANT for Prediction
For my visualizations I have decided to use some of the features with the highest correlations to accident_seriousness:
Note: The columns used were selected because of the absolute value of their correlation in relation to accident_seriousness
*columns added after correlation was done after undersampling
For visual reasons, two separate dataframes were created, for not serious and serious accidents. I wanted to better scale the data and for me, this was the simplest way of doing so.
#dataframe where accidents are Slight
not_serious = df[(df['accident_seriousness']=="Not Serious")]
print("Not Serious Group Shape:", not_serious.shape)
not_serious.accident_seriousness.value_counts()
Not Serious Group Shape: (492804, 59)
Not Serious 492804 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: int64
#dataframe where accidents are serious
serious= df[(df['accident_seriousness']=="Serious")]
print("Serious Group Shape:", serious.shape)
serious.accident_seriousness.value_counts()
Serious Group Shape: (68331, 59)
Serious 68331 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: int64
#map 1, 2, 3 in did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident with Yes, No,Self-reported
policeattend = {1: "Yes", 2:"No", 3:"Self-Reported"}
not_serious['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident']=not_serious['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident'].map(policeattend)
df['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident']=df['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident'].map(policeattend)
serious['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident']=serious['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident'].map(policeattend)
imddecile = {1:"Most deprived 10%", 2:"More deprived 10-20%", 3:"More deprived 20-30%",
4:"More deprived 30-40%", 5:"More deprived 40-50%", 6:"Less deprived 40-50%",
7:"Less deprived 30-40%", 8:"Less deprived 20-30%", 9:"Less deprived 10-20%",
10:"Least deprived 10%"}
not_serious['driver_imd_decile']=not_serious['driver_imd_decile'].map(imddecile)
df['driver_imd_decile']=df['driver_imd_decile'].map(imddecile)
serious['driver_imd_decile']=serious['driver_imd_decile'].map(imddecile)
#setups for adding frequencies to visualizations
dftotal= float(len(df))
nstotal= float(len(not_serious))
setotal= float(len(serious))
The below plots will look into if police officers attended the scene of an accident.
fig, ax =plt.subplots(1,2,figsize = (15,8))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 = sns.countplot( "did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident", hue="accident_seriousness",
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident", hue="accident_seriousness",
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Did Police Officer Attend Scene Of Accident", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Attendance of Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=12, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Attendance of Serious Accidents', fontsize=12, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number Attended')
ax2.set_ylabel('Number Attended')
ax1.get_legend().remove()
ax2.get_legend().remove()
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident.png')
fig.show()
The below plots show the counts for the first spot in which vehicles were hit in an accident
# First Point of Impact Vs Accident Seriousness (Not Serious)
fpoa_order =["Front", "Nearside", "Did not impact", "Back", "Offside"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness",hue="x1st_point_of_impact", hue_order=fpoa_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness",hue="x1st_point_of_impact", hue_order=fpoa_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("First Point of Impact in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('First Point of Impact of Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('First Point of Impact of Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('First Point of Impact Count', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('')
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('x1st_point_of_impact.png')
fig.show()
The below plots show the counts for number of vehicles in each accident.
nov_order=["1","2", "3", "4+"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="number_of_vehicles", hue_order=nov_order,
palette="GnBu_d", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="number_of_vehicles", hue_order=nov_order,
palette="GnBu_d", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Number of Vehicles in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Number of Vehicles of Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Number of Vehicles of Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('')
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('number_of_vehicles.png')
fig.show()
The below graphs show the speed limit by accident in areas where the accidents occured. ed Limit vs Accident Seriousness
splt_order=[15, 20,30,40,50,60,70]
splt_order2=[20,30,40,50,60,70]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="speed_limit", hue_order=splt_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.4f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="speed_limit", hue_order=splt_order2,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Speed Limit in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Speed Limit of Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Speed Limit of Serious Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('speed_limit.png')
fig.show()
The graphs below show whether the accidents occured in an Urban or Rural Area.
fig, ax =plt.subplots(1,2,figsize = (15,8))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="urban_or_rural_area",
palette="PuBu", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="urban_or_rural_area",
palette="PuBu", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Urban or Rural Areas vs Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('\nUrban or Rural Areas vs Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('\nUrban or Rural Areas vs Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('')
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('urban_or_rural_area.png')
fig.show()
The below graphs show if any skidding, jackniffing, and/or overturnning occured in the acccident.
sao_order=["None", "Skidded", "Skidded and overturned", "Overturned", "Jackknifed",
"Jackknifed and overturned"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="skidding_and_overturning", hue_order=sao_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.3f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="skidding_and_overturning", hue_order=sao_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.3f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Skidding and Overturning in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('\nSkidding and Overturning in Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('\nSkidding and Overturning in Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('skidding_and_overturning.png')
fig.show()
The below graphs show if a vehicle left the carriageway, and if they did, where did they do so.
vlc_order=["Did not leave carriageway", "Straight ahead at junction", "Nearside",
"Offside", "Offside on to central reservation", "Nearside and rebounded",
"Offside - crossed central reservation", "Offside and rebounded",
"Offside on to centrl res + rebounded"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_leaving_carriageway", hue_order=vlc_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_leaving_carriageway", hue_order=vlc_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Vehicle Leaving Carriageway in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Not Serious Accidents\n\n', fontsize=13, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Serious Accidents', fontsize=13, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('vehicle_leaving_carriageway.png')
fig.show()
The below graphs show the sex of the drivers in the accidents.
sod_order=["Female", "Male", "Not known"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(1,2,figsize = (15,8))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="sex_of_driver", hue_order=sod_order,
palette="magma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="sex_of_driver", hue_order=sod_order,
palette="magma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Sex of Driver in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('\nSex of Driver in Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('\nSex of Driver in Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('')
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('sex_of_driver.png')
fig.show()
The graphs below are about the number of accidents by type of vehicle.
vt_order=['Bus', 'Car', 'Goods Vehicle', 'Motorcycle', 'Other Vehicle']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_type", hue_order=vt_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_type", hue_order=vt_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Vehicle Type in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Vehicle Type in Not Serious Accidents\n\n', fontsize=13, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Vehicle Type in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('vehicle_type.png')
fig.show()
The graphs below depict the types of moves vehicles made that led to the accident.
vm_order=['Turning right', 'Going ahead other', 'Going ahead right-hand bend',
'Slowing or stopping', 'Turning left', 'Waiting to go - held up',
'Waiting to turn right', 'Overtaking static vehicle - offside' ,
'Parked', 'Overtaking - nearside', 'U-turn', 'Changing lane to right',
'Reversing', 'Waiting to turn left', 'Changing lane to left',
'Going ahead left-hand bend', 'Overtaking moving vehicle - offside', 'Moving off']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_manoeuvre",hue_order=vm_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="vehicle_manoeuvre",hue_order=vm_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Vehicle Manuevers in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Vehicle Manuevers in Not Serious Accidents\n\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Vehicle Manuevers in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.tight_layout() # No overlap of subplots
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('vehicle_manoeuvre.png')
fig.show()
This area is another look at the type of area the accident occured in, whether Rural, Urban, or Small Town.
dhoa_order=['Urban area', 'Rural', 'Small town']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(1,2,figsize = (15,8))
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=False, bottom=False)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="driver_home_area_type", hue_order=dhoa_order,
palette="magma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="driver_home_area_type", hue_order=dhoa_order,
palette="magma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 3,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Driver Home Type Area in Accidents", fontsize=20, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('\nDriver Home Type Area in Not Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('\nDriver Home Type Area in Serious Accidents', fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.set_ylabel('')
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('driver_home_area.png')
fig.show()
Thr graphs below show accidents by age groups of the drivers.
#age_band_of_driver
abod_order=['Under 16', '16-25', '26-45', '46-65','Over 65']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="age_band_of_driver", hue_order=abod_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="age_band_of_driver", hue_order=abod_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Age Band of Driver in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Age Band of Driver in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Age Band of Driver in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('age_band_of_driver.png')
fig.show()
The following graphs show what type of traffic signs or signals were up in the accident area, if any.
jc_order = ['Give way or uncontrolled', 'Auto traffic signal', 'Authorised person',
'Stop sign','Not at junction or within 20 metres']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_control", hue_order=jc_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_control", hue_order=jc_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Junction Control in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Junction Control in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Junction Control in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('junction_control.png')
fig.show()
The following graphs show if a vehicle hit an object off of the road and what object, if they hit one during the accident.
hooffc_order=['None', 'Lamp post', 'Road sign or traffic signal', 'Other permanent object',
'Entered ditch', 'Tree', 'Near/Offside crash barrier','Central crash barrier',
'Bus stop or bus shelter', 'Telegraph or electricity pole', 'Submerged in water',
'Wall or fence']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="hit_object_off_carriageway", hue_order=hooffc_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.3f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="hit_object_off_carriageway", hue_order=hooffc_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Objects Hit Off Carriageway in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Objects Hit Off Carriageway in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Objects Hit Off Carriageway in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('hit_object_off_carriageway.png')
fig.show()
The following graphs show if a vehicle hit an object on the road and what object, if they hit one during the accident.
hoinc_order=['None', 'Kerb', 'Other object', 'Bollard or refuge', 'Parked vehicle',
'Road works', 'Open door of vehicle', 'Central island of roundabout',
'Previous accident', 'Bridge (side)', 'Any animal (except ridden horse)',
'Bridge (roof)']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,12))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="hit_object_in_carriageway", hue_order=hoinc_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.3f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="hit_object_in_carriageway", hue_order=hoinc_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.3f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Objects Hit in Carriageway in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Objects Hit in Carriageway in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Objects Hit in Carriageway in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('hit_object_in_carriageway.png')
fig.show()
The Driver IMD Decile is the score for the deprivation of an area. The graphs below show accidents by how deprived an area was at the time of the accident.
imd_order=["Least deprived 10%", "Less deprived 10-20%", "Less deprived 20-30%",
"Less deprived 30-40%","Less deprived 40-50%","Most deprived 10%",
"More deprived 10-20%", "More deprived 20-30%", "More deprived 30-40%",
"More deprived 40-50%"]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,15))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="driver_imd_decile", hue_order=imd_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="driver_imd_decile", hue_order=imd_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Driver Area Deprivation Scores in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Driver Area Deprivation Scores in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Driver Area Deprivation Scores in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('driver_imd_decile.png')
fig.show()
The following graphs show the road features in relations to where the accidents occured.
jud_order=['T or staggered junction', 'Mini-roundabout', 'Crossroads',
'Private drive or entrance', 'More than 4 arms (not roundabout)',
'Roundabout', 'Slip road', 'Other junction','Not at junction or within 20 metres']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,15))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_detail", hue_order=jud_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_detail", hue_order=jud_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Junction Details in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Junction Details in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Junction Details in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('junction_detail.png')
fig.show()
The graphs below show where the accidents occured on the roads.
jul_order=['Mid Junction - on roundabout or on main road', 'Entering main road',
'Approaching junction or waiting/parked at junction approach',
'Cleared junction or waiting/parked at junction exit', 'Leaving main road',
'Leaving roundabout', 'Entering roundabout', 'Entering from slip road',
'Not at or within 20 metres of junction']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,15))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_location", hue_order=jul_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="junction_location", hue_order=jul_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Junction Locations in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Junction Locations in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Junction Locations in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('junction_location.png')
fig.show()
The propulsion ode is the type of fuel used to power the car. The graphs below show what type of fuel was used in the vehicles in the accidents.
pd_order=['Petrol', 'Heavy oil', 'Hybrid electric', 'Bio-fuel', 'LPG Petrol', 'Diesel',
'Fuel cells', 'New fuel technology', 'Electric diesel']
pd_order2=['Petrol', 'Heavy oil', 'Hybrid electric', 'Bio-fuel', 'LPG Petrol', 'Electric diesel']
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,15))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="propulsion_code", hue_order=pd_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="propulsion_code", hue_order=pd_order2,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Propulsion Codes in Accidents", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Propulsion Codes in Not Serious Accidents\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Propulsion Codes in Serious Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('propulsion_code.png')
fig.show()
The year of the accidents.
year_order=[2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016]
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=2, ncols=1,figsize = (15,15))
sns.despine(top=False, right=True, left=True)
ax1 =sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="year", hue_order=year_order,
palette="plasma", data=not_serious, ax=ax[0])
for p in ax1.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax1.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/nstotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
ax2 = sns.countplot("accident_seriousness", hue="year", hue_order=year_order,
palette="plasma", data=serious, ax=ax[1])
for p in ax2.patches:
height = p.get_height()
ax2.text(p.get_x()+p.get_width()/2.,
height + 4,
'{:1.2f}%'.format(height/setotal*100),
ha="center",fontsize=12)
fig.suptitle("Accidents by Year", fontsize=18, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_xlabel('Not Serious Accidents by Year\n', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_xlabel('Serious Accidents by Year', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax2.set_ylabel('Number of Accidents', fontsize=13.5, fontweight="bold")
ax1.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
ax2.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.savefig('year.png')
fig.show()
Due to the previous visualizations a comparison of certain variables was desired to see more correlations.
The following graph shows what type of traffic control were in specific areas of the road where accidents occured.
#Not Serious Accident
plt.figure(figsize=(20,15))
ax=sns.countplot("junction_control", hue="junction_detail",
palette="plasma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("Junction Control by Junction Detail",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nAccident by Year", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.legend().set_title('')
plt.legend(fontsize='22', loc = 'upper right')
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=15)
plt.legend(fontsize='15', bbox_to_anchor=(1.04, 1), loc='upper right', ncol=1)
# plt.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('junction_control_by_junction_detail.png')
plt.show()
The graph below is a more detailed look at junction areas in relation to the accidents.
plt.figure(figsize=(20,15))
ax=sns.countplot("junction_control", hue="junction_location",
palette="plasma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("Junction Control by Junction Location in Accidents",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nAccident by Year", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.legend().set_title('')
plt.legend(fontsize='22', loc = 'upper right')
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=15)
plt.legend(fontsize='15', bbox_to_anchor=(1.04, 1), loc='upper right', ncol=1)
# plt.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('junction_control_by_junction_location.png')
plt.show()
The graph below shows where impact first occured in the detailed road area type.
plt.figure(figsize=(20,15))
ax=sns.countplot("x1st_point_of_impact", hue="junction_detail",
palette="plasma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("First point of Impact by Junction Detail",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nAccident by Year", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.legend().set_title('')
plt.legend(fontsize='22', loc = 'upper right')
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=15)
plt.legend(fontsize='15', bbox_to_anchor=(1.04, 1), loc='upper right', ncol=1)
# plt.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('x1st_point_of_impact_by_junction_detail.png')
plt.show()
The graph below shows where the accident occured and what was the first point of impact.
plt.figure(figsize=(20,15))
ax=sns.countplot("x1st_point_of_impact", hue="junction_location",
palette="plasma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("First point of Impact by Junction Location",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nAccident by Year", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.legend().set_title('')
plt.legend(fontsize='22', loc = 'upper right')
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=15)
plt.legend(fontsize='15', bbox_to_anchor=(1.04, 1), loc='upper right', ncol=1)
# plt.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('x1st_point_of_impact_by_junction_location.png')
plt.show()
The following graph shows what type of traffic controls (signange or otherwise) were present at the first point of impact.
plt.figure(figsize=(20,15))
ax=sns.countplot("x1st_point_of_impact", hue="junction_control",
palette="plasma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("First point of Impact by Junction Control",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("\nAccident by Year", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.legend().set_title('')
plt.legend(fontsize='22', loc = 'upper right')
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=15)
plt.yticks(fontsize=15)
plt.legend(fontsize='15', bbox_to_anchor=(1.04, 1), loc='upper right', ncol=1)
# plt.tick_params(axis='x', which='both', bottom=False, top=False, labelbottom=False)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('x1st_point_of_impact_by_junction_control.png')
plt.show()
No matter the situation above, the most accidents were involving areas that were uncontrolled. One of the main ones were the junction Detail T or staggered junction.
Other areas of concern include Mid Junctions on roundabouts or main roads and areas approaching a junction were cars were either parking or waiting in the junction.
From the data above more controlled areas would be benefical. Maybe signs alerting drivers of the upcoming junctions, traffic lights, or stop signs would help in some of these areas where they are feasible.
For example, this is a staggered junction, the main junction detail in accidents. One can understand how a situation such as these can lead to numerous accidents especially if proper signage is not available. Perhaps traffic lights, stop signs, or warnings indicating that they are approaching certain junctions would help reduce accidents.
Below you wll find a web scrape of the website, Learner Driving Centres, which contains information on road signs in the UK. They were pulled to show examples of signage available to be placed.
#request website
r = requests.get('https://www.learnerdriving.com/learn-to-drive/highway-code/road-signs')
#parse HTML
soup = BeautifulSoup(r.text, 'html.parser')
#filter results
results = soup.find_all('div', attrs={'class':'fifth'})
#done to find specific results area
first_result=results[0]
first_result
first_result.find('img')['src']
'/images/highway-code/entry-to-20-mph-zone.png'
#get images of signs and sign descriptions
signage = []
for result in results:
sign=result.find('img')['src']
sign_desc=result.contents[1]
signage.append((sign, sign_desc))
#put pulled UK Traffic Signs into dataframe
uktrafficsigns = pd.DataFrame(signage, columns=['Sign', 'Sign Description'])
uktrafficsigns.head()
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | /images/highway-code/entry-to-20-mph-zone.png | Entry to 20 mph zone |
| 1 | /images/highway-code/end-of-20-mph-zone.png | End of 20 mph zone |
| 2 | /images/highway-code/maximum-speed.png | Maximum speed |
| 3 | /images/highway-code/national-speed-limit-appl... | National speed limit applies |
| 4 | /images/highway-code/school-crossing-patrol.png | School crossing patrol |
'''
the "image" is just part of the image link,
must parse the first half in order to have full image link
'''
uktrafficsigns['Sign'] = 'https://www.learnerdriving.com/'+uktrafficsigns['Sign']
uktrafficsigns.head()
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | https://www.learnerdriving.com//images/highway... | Entry to 20 mph zone |
| 1 | https://www.learnerdriving.com//images/highway... | End of 20 mph zone |
| 2 | https://www.learnerdriving.com//images/highway... | Maximum speed |
| 3 | https://www.learnerdriving.com//images/highway... | National speed limit applies |
| 4 | https://www.learnerdriving.com//images/highway... | School crossing patrol |
'''
In some coding below I saw that one of the fields was blank (at index 42) but was not reading as null.
In order to fix that I changed the "Sign Description" and decided to place it here.
'''
uktrafficsigns.at[42,'Sign Description']="T-junction with priority over vehicles from the right"
#I wanted to save this as a csv for later, and to stop unnecessary web scraping
uktrafficsigns.to_csv('uktrafficsigns.csv', header=False, index=False)
#I wanted the html to show up as images instead of links
def path_to_image_html(path):
return '<img src="'+ path + '" width="60" >'
pd.set_option('display.max_colwidth', -1)
ukts=HTML(uktrafficsigns.to_html(escape=False ,formatters=dict(Sign=path_to_image_html)))
HTML(uktrafficsigns.to_html(escape=False ,formatters=dict(Sign=path_to_image_html)))
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 |  |
Entry to 20 mph zone |
| 1 |  |
End of 20 mph zone |
| 2 |  |
Maximum speed |
| 3 |  |
National speed limit applies |
| 4 |  |
School crossing patrol |
| 5 |  |
Stop and give way |
| 6 |  |
Give way to traffic on major road |
| 7 |  |
Manually operated temporary |
| 8 |  |
STOP and GO signs |
| 9 |  |
No entry for vehicular traffic |
| 10 |  |
No vehicles except bicycles being pushed |
| 11 |  |
No cycling |
| 12 |  |
No motor vehicles |
| 13 |  |
No buses (over 8 passenger seats) |
| 14 |  |
No overtaking |
| 15 |  |
No towed caravans |
| 16 |  |
No vehicles carrying explosives |
| 17 |  |
No vehicle or combination of vehicles over length shown |
| 18 |  |
No vehicles over height shown |
| 19 |  |
No vehicles over width shown |
| 20 |  |
Give priority to vehicles from opposite direction |
| 21 |  |
No right turn |
| 22 |  |
No left turn |
| 23 |  |
No U-turns |
| 24 |  |
No goods vehicles over maximum gross weight shown (in tonnes) except for loading and unloading |
| 25 |  |
Ahead only |
| 26 |  |
Turn left ahead (right if symbol reversed) |
| 27 |  |
Turn left (right if symbol reversed) |
| 28 |  |
Keep left (right if symbol reversed) |
| 29 |  |
Vehicles may pass either side to reach same destination |
| 30 |  |
Mini-roundabout (roundabout circulation - give way to vehicles from the immediate right) |
| 31 |  |
Route to be used by pedal cycles only |
| 32 |  |
Segregated pedal cycle and pedestrian route |
| 33 |  |
Minimum speed |
| 34 |  |
End of minimum speed |
| 35 |  |
Distance to 'STOP' line ahead |
| 36 |  |
Dual carriage-way ends |
| 37 |  |
Road narrows on right (left if symbol reversed) |
| 38 |  |
Road narrows on both sides |
| 39 |  |
Distance to 'Give Way' line ahead |
| 40 |  |
Crossroads |
| 41 |  |
Junction on bend ahead |
| 42 |  |
T-junction with priority over vehicles from the right |
| 43 |  |
Staggered junction |
| 44 |  |
Traffic merging from left ahead |
| 45 |  |
Double bend first to left (symbol may be reversed) |
| 46 |  |
Bend to right (or left if symbol reversed) |
| 47 |  |
Roundabout |
| 48 |  |
Uneven road |
| 49 |  |
Plate below some signs |
| 50 |  |
Two-way traffic crosses one-way road |
| 51 |  |
Two-way traffic straight ahead |
| 52 |  |
Opening or swing bridge ahead |
| 53 |  |
Low-flying aircraft or sudden aircraft noise |
| 54 |  |
Falling or fallen rocks |
| 55 |  |
Traffic signals not in use |
| 56 |  |
Traffic signals |
| 57 |  |
Slippery road |
| 58 |  |
Steep hill downwards |
| 59 |  |
Steep hill upwards |
| 60 |  |
Tunnel ahead |
| 61 |  |
Trams crossing ahead |
| 62 |  |
Level crossing with barrier or gate ahead |
| 63 |  |
Level crossing without barrier or gate ahead |
| 64 |  |
Level crossing without barrier |
| 65 |  |
School crossing patrol ahead (some signs have amber lights which flash when children are crossing) |
| 66 |  |
Frail (or blind or disabled if shown) pedestrians likely to cross road ahead |
| 67 |  |
Pedestrians in road ahead |
| 68 |  |
Zebra crossing |
| 69 |  |
Overhead electric cable; plate indicates maximum height of vehicles which can pass safely |
| 70 |  |
Cattle |
| 71 |  |
Wild animals |
| 72 |  |
Wild horses or ponies |
| 73 |  |
Accompanied horses or ponies |
| 74 |  |
Cycle route ahead |
| 75 |  |
Risk of ice |
| 76 |  |
Traffic queues likely ahead |
| 77 |  |
Distance over which road humps extend |
| 78 |  |
Other danger; plate indicates nature of danger |
| 79 |  |
Soft verges |
| 80 |  |
Side winds |
| 81 |  |
Hump bridge |
| 82 |  |
Worded warning sign |
| 83 |  |
Quayside or river bank |
| 84 |  |
Risk of grounding |
'''
Here I am creating a df that will allow me to pull all junction signs.
"ction" was used instead of "junction" in order to pull all variables.
'''
junction =uktrafficsigns[uktrafficsigns['Sign Description'].str.contains("nction", regex=False)]
#Making it its own HTML object (same as above)
def path_to_image_html(path):
return '<img src="'+ path + '" width="60" >'
pd.set_option('display.max_colwidth', -1)
HTML(junction.to_html(escape=False ,formatters=dict(Sign=path_to_image_html)))
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | |
Junction on bend ahead |
| 42 | |
T-junction with priority over vehicles from the right |
| 43 | |
Staggered junction |
#Repeated the above steps for giveways
give=uktrafficsigns[uktrafficsigns['Sign Description'].str.contains("ive ", regex=False)]
def path_to_image_html(path):
return '<img src="'+ path + '" width="60" >'
pd.set_option('display.max_colwidth', -1)
HTML(give.to_html(escape=False ,formatters=dict(Sign=path_to_image_html)))
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | |
Stop and give way |
| 6 | |
Give way to traffic on major road |
| 20 | |
Give priority to vehicles from opposite direction |
| 30 | |
Mini-roundabout (roundabout circulation - give way to vehicles from the immediate right) |
| 39 | |
Distance to 'Give Way' line ahead |
#roundabouts
roundabout=uktrafficsigns[uktrafficsigns['Sign Description'].str.contains("ounda", regex=False)]
def path_to_image_html(path):
return '<img src="'+ path + '" width="60" >'
pd.set_option('display.max_colwidth', -1)
HTML(roundabout.to_html(escape=False ,formatters=dict(Sign=path_to_image_html)))
| Sign | Sign Description | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | |
Mini-roundabout (roundabout circulation - give way to vehicles from the immediate right) |
| 47 | |
Roundabout |
Below we used Tableau to map what could be deemed problem areas for the UK. These are accidents in areas with high deprivation (driver_imd_decile @ more deprived 40-50%) and no signange at T or staggered junctions.
%%HTML
<div class='tableauPlaceholder' id='viz1572177057382' style='position: relative'><noscript><a href='https://github.com/GenTaylor/Traffic-Accident-Analysis'><img alt=' ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Ac/AccidentForecasting/SeriousAccidentsinAreaswithHighDeprivationandNoSignage/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='embed_code_version' value='3' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='AccidentForecasting/SeriousAccidentsinAreaswithHighDeprivationandNoSignage' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Ac/AccidentForecasting/SeriousAccidentsinAreaswithHighDeprivationandNoSignage/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div> <script type='text/javascript'> var divElement = document.getElementById('viz1572177057382'); var vizElement = divElement.getElementsByTagName('object')[0]; vizElement.style.width='100%';vizElement.style.height=(divElement.offsetWidth*0.75)+'px'; var scriptElement = document.createElement('script'); scriptElement.src = 'https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'; vizElement.parentNode.insertBefore(scriptElement, vizElement); </script>
Below is a screenshot of the above mapping. I put this here just in case there is trouble viewing it. If you would like to view the actual worksheet for it, please click here.
#made separate dataframe w. set index that wouldnt effect data vis above
df1=df
#set index to accident_index
df1.set_index('accident_index', inplace=True)
df1.head()
| 1st_road_class | 1st_road_number | 2nd_road_number | accident_severity | carriageway_hazards | date | day_of_week | did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident | junction_control | junction_detail | ... | vehicle_type | was_vehicle_left_hand_drive | x1st_point_of_impact | month | weekend | hour | time_of_day | season | engine_capacity_cc_size | accident_seriousness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| accident_index | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 201001BS70003 | B | 302 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | T or staggered junction | ... | Goods Vehicle | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70004 | A | 402 | 4204 | Slight | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | T or staggered junction | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | Mini-roundabout | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | Slight | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | Mini-roundabout | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70008 | A | 3217 | 3220 | Slight | None | 2010-01-04 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | Crossroads | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
5 rows × 59 columns
df1 = df1.drop(['accident_severity'],axis=1)
df1.head()
| 1st_road_class | 1st_road_number | 2nd_road_number | carriageway_hazards | date | day_of_week | did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident | junction_control | junction_detail | latitude | ... | vehicle_type | was_vehicle_left_hand_drive | x1st_point_of_impact | month | weekend | hour | time_of_day | season | engine_capacity_cc_size | accident_seriousness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| accident_index | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 201001BS70003 | B | 302 | 0 | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | T or staggered junction | 51.484087 | ... | Goods Vehicle | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70004 | A | 402 | 4204 | None | 2010-01-11 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | T or staggered junction | 51.509212 | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | Mini-roundabout | 51.513314 | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70007 | Unclassified | 0 | 0 | None | 2010-01-02 | Saturday | 1 | Give way or uncontrolled | Mini-roundabout | 51.513314 | ... | Car | No | Front | 1 | 1 | 21 | 6 | winter | small engine cc | Not Serious |
| 201001BS70008 | A | 3217 | 3220 | None | 2010-01-04 | Monday | 1 | Auto traffic signal | Crossroads | 51.484361 | ... | Car | No | Nearside | 1 | 0 | 20 | 6 | winter | medium engine cc | Not Serious |
5 rows × 58 columns
print(df1.columns)
Index(['1st_road_class', '1st_road_number', '2nd_road_number',
'carriageway_hazards', 'date', 'day_of_week',
'did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident', 'junction_control',
'junction_detail', 'latitude', 'light_conditions',
'local_authority_district', 'local_authority_highway', 'longitude',
'lsoa_of_accident_location', 'number_of_casualties',
'number_of_vehicles', 'pedestrian_crossing-human_control',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities', 'police_force',
'road_surface_conditions', 'road_type', 'special_conditions_at_site',
'speed_limit', 'time', 'urban_or_rural_area', 'weather_conditions',
'year', 'inscotland', 'age_band_of_driver', 'age_of_vehicle',
'driver_home_area_type', 'driver_imd_decile', 'engine_capacity_cc',
'hit_object_in_carriageway', 'hit_object_off_carriageway',
'journey_purpose_of_driver', 'junction_location', 'make', 'model',
'propulsion_code', 'sex_of_driver', 'skidding_and_overturning',
'towing_and_articulation', 'vehicle_leaving_carriageway',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane', 'vehicle_manoeuvre',
'vehicle_reference', 'vehicle_type', 'was_vehicle_left_hand_drive',
'x1st_point_of_impact', 'month', 'weekend', 'hour', 'time_of_day',
'season', 'engine_capacity_cc_size', 'accident_seriousness'],
dtype='object')
#separate dtypes
notif=df1.select_dtypes(exclude=['int','float','int64'])
intfldtypes = df1.select_dtypes(include=['int','float','int64'])
print('Objects',notif.columns)
print("\nNonObjects",intfldtypes.columns)
#checking to make sure all are accounted for
print(df1.shape)
print(notif.shape)
print(intfldtypes.shape)
Objects Index(['1st_road_class', '1st_road_number', '2nd_road_number',
'carriageway_hazards', 'date', 'day_of_week',
'did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident', 'junction_control',
'junction_detail', 'light_conditions', 'local_authority_district',
'local_authority_highway', 'lsoa_of_accident_location',
'number_of_casualties', 'number_of_vehicles',
'pedestrian_crossing-human_control',
'pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities', 'police_force',
'road_surface_conditions', 'road_type', 'special_conditions_at_site',
'time', 'urban_or_rural_area', 'weather_conditions', 'inscotland',
'age_band_of_driver', 'age_of_vehicle', 'driver_home_area_type',
'hit_object_in_carriageway', 'hit_object_off_carriageway',
'journey_purpose_of_driver', 'junction_location', 'make', 'model',
'propulsion_code', 'sex_of_driver', 'skidding_and_overturning',
'towing_and_articulation', 'vehicle_leaving_carriageway',
'vehicle_locationrestricted_lane', 'vehicle_manoeuvre',
'vehicle_reference', 'vehicle_type', 'was_vehicle_left_hand_drive',
'x1st_point_of_impact', 'weekend', 'hour', 'time_of_day', 'season',
'engine_capacity_cc_size', 'accident_seriousness'],
dtype='object')
NonObjects Index(['latitude', 'longitude', 'speed_limit', 'year', 'driver_imd_decile',
'engine_capacity_cc', 'month'],
dtype='object')
(561135, 58)
(561135, 51)
(561135, 7)
Label Encoder was used instead of OneHotEncoder due to the memory errors One Hot Encoder caused in the data. The algorithms used will be classifiers, through boosting and trees, and not linear.
#label encode objects
obj_le= notif.apply(LabelEncoder().fit_transform)
#re-add with non-objects
df_ml= pd.concat([obj_le,intfldtypes], axis=1, sort=False)
#check shape
print(df_ml.shape)
(561135, 58)
#Set up of X and Y
X= df_ml.drop(['accident_seriousness'],axis=1)
y= df_ml['accident_seriousness']
df_ml.accident_seriousness.value_counts()
0 492804 1 68331 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: int64
df.dtypes
1st_road_class object 1st_road_number object 2nd_road_number object accident_severity object carriageway_hazards object date datetime64[ns] day_of_week object did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident object junction_control object junction_detail object latitude float64 light_conditions object local_authority_district object local_authority_highway object longitude float64 lsoa_of_accident_location object number_of_casualties object number_of_vehicles object pedestrian_crossing-human_control object pedestrian_crossing-physical_facilities object police_force object road_surface_conditions object road_type object special_conditions_at_site object speed_limit float64 time object urban_or_rural_area object weather_conditions object year int64 inscotland object age_band_of_driver object age_of_vehicle category driver_home_area_type object driver_imd_decile float64 engine_capacity_cc float64 hit_object_in_carriageway object hit_object_off_carriageway object journey_purpose_of_driver object junction_location object make object model object propulsion_code object sex_of_driver object skidding_and_overturning object towing_and_articulation object vehicle_leaving_carriageway object vehicle_locationrestricted_lane object vehicle_manoeuvre object vehicle_reference object vehicle_type object was_vehicle_left_hand_drive object x1st_point_of_impact object month int64 weekend int32 hour int32 time_of_day object season object engine_capacity_cc_size object accident_seriousness object dtype: object
plt.figure(figsize=(12,6))
ax=sns.countplot(x="accident_seriousness", palette="magma", data=df)
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.title("Accident Seriousness",fontsize=25,fontweight="bold")
plt.xlabel("", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.ylabel("\nNumber of Accidents\n", fontsize=15, fontweight="bold")
plt.xticks(fontsize=18)
plt.yticks(fontsize=12)
sns.despine(top=True, right=True, left=True, bottom=False)
plt.savefig('accident_seriousness.png')
plt.show()
The data in this dataset is extremely imbalanced for what we are trying to predict. We are going to resample the data as undersampling, where we reduce the number of majority (Not Serious Accidents) samples.
The machine learning classifier algorithms that we are going to use are as follows:
*Gradient Boosting was commented out because of the time it took to run (18hrs) and not having relevant enough results to still consider.
# setting up testing and training sets
res_X_train, res_X_test, res_y_train, res_y_test = train_test_split(X, y,
test_size=0.25, random_state=27)
# concatenate our training data back together
res_X = pd.concat([res_X_train, res_y_train], axis=1)
# separate minority and majority classes
not_severe = res_X[res_X.accident_seriousness==0]
severe = res_X[res_X.accident_seriousness==1]
# decrease majority
not_severe_decreased = resample(not_severe,
replace=True, # sample with replacement
n_samples=len(severe), # match number in majority class
random_state=27) # reproducible results
# combine majority and severe_increased minority
newdf = pd.concat([severe, not_severe_decreased])
newdf.accident_seriousness.value_counts()
1 51357 0 51357 Name: accident_seriousness, dtype: int64
res_X_train = newdf.drop('accident_seriousness', axis=1)
res_y_train = newdf.accident_seriousness
Before, we get in to predictions, we are going to complete some machine learning in ordered to see how the data relates to each other. We are going to do this on the resampled data as well, in order to avoid bias. We will use two clusters which, in theory, represent the two variables for accident_seriousness, Not Serious & Serious
# "clustering" using kmode algorithm that is designed to handle mixed data
km_huang = KModes(n_clusters=2, init = "Huang", n_init = 1)
fitClusters_huang = km_huang.fit_predict(newdf)
fitClusters_huang
array([1, 0, 0, ..., 0, 1, 1], dtype=uint16)
newdf1 = newdf.copy().reset_index()
clustersDf = pd.DataFrame(fitClusters_huang)
clustersDf.columns = ['cluster_predicted']
combinedDf = pd.concat([newdf1, clustersDf], axis = 1).reset_index()
combinedDf = combinedDf.drop(['index'], axis = 1)
combinedDf.head()
| accident_index | 1st_road_class | 1st_road_number | 2nd_road_number | carriageway_hazards | date | day_of_week | did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident | junction_control | junction_detail | ... | engine_capacity_cc_size | latitude | longitude | speed_limit | year | driver_imd_decile | engine_capacity_cc | month | accident_seriousness | cluster_predicted | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 201554A415715 | 0 | 429 | 0 | 1 | 2148 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | ... | 2 | 51.556002 | -2.110741 | 30.0 | 2015 | 8.0 | 1299.0 | 11 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 2010440174154 | 0 | 27 | 2391 | 1 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | ... | 1 | 50.895352 | -1.319297 | 30.0 | 2010 | 5.0 | 1997.0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 201506N097860 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1880 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | ... | 0 | 53.591164 | -2.295013 | 30.0 | 2015 | 8.0 | 2143.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 2016460101917 | 0 | 252 | 251 | 1 | 2426 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | ... | 1 | 51.221226 | 0.878850 | 40.0 | 2016 | 8.0 | 1560.0 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 201342I085803 | 0 | 120 | 0 | 1 | 1182 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | ... | 2 | 51.877039 | 0.674514 | 60.0 | 2013 | 9.0 | 1149.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
5 rows × 60 columns
#plotting a few of these features just to see how they relate to the clustering for seriousness
f, axs = plt.subplots(nrows=6, ncols=3,figsize = (12,24))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident'],
order=combinedDf['did_police_officer_attend_scene_of_accident'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[0,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['x1st_point_of_impact'],
order=combinedDf['x1st_point_of_impact'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[0,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['number_of_vehicles'],
order=combinedDf['number_of_vehicles'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[0,2])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['speed_limit'],
order=combinedDf['speed_limit'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[1,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['urban_or_rural_area'],
order=combinedDf['urban_or_rural_area'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[1,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['skidding_and_overturning'],
order=combinedDf['skidding_and_overturning'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[1,2])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['vehicle_leaving_carriageway'],
order=combinedDf['vehicle_leaving_carriageway'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[2,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['sex_of_driver'],
order=combinedDf['sex_of_driver'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[2,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['vehicle_type'],
order=combinedDf['vehicle_type'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[2,2])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['junction_control'],
order=combinedDf['junction_control'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[3,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['number_of_casualties'],
order=combinedDf['number_of_casualties'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[3,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['age_band_of_driver'],
order=combinedDf['age_band_of_driver'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[3,2])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['junction_detail'],
order=combinedDf['junction_detail'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[4,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['junction_location'],
order=combinedDf['junction_location'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[4,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['driver_imd_decile'],
order=combinedDf['driver_imd_decile'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[4,2])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['junction_detail'],
order=combinedDf['junction_detail'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[5,0])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['junction_location'],
order=combinedDf['junction_location'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[5,1])
sns.countplot(x=combinedDf['driver_imd_decile'],
order=combinedDf['driver_imd_decile'].value_counts().index,
hue=combinedDf['cluster_predicted'], palette='PuBu', ax=axs[5,2])
plt.tight_layout()
plt.savefig('clusterplot.png')
plt.show()
Looking at these graphs we can see the patterns of how each category of eacch column pairs off with the clustering on accident_seriousness.
#confusion matrix plot function
def cm_plot(var):
plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
plt.clf()
plt.imshow(var, interpolation='nearest', cmap='tab20')
classNames = ['Not Serious','Serious']
plt.title('Confusion Matrix')
plt.ylabel('Actual\n')
plt.xlabel('Predicted\n')
tick_marks = np.arange(len(classNames))
plt.xticks(tick_marks, classNames)
plt.yticks(tick_marks, classNames)
s = [['TN','FP'], ['FN', 'TP']]
for i in range(2):
for j in range(2):
plt.text(j,i, str(s[i][j])+"="+str(var[i][j]),horizontalalignment='center',
color='black')
plt.show()
First, we are going to run some standard classifier algorithms using the resampling method from above, gather the results of some scoring metrics (Accuracy, Log Loss, Cross Validation, Recall, Roc Auc, F1, False Positive Rate, Error Rate), and put those scores into a dataframe
#Try modeling using different classification models
classifiers = [
BaggingClassifier(max_features=X.shape[1], n_estimators=500, random_state=42),
AdaBoostClassifier( n_estimators=500, learning_rate=0.05, random_state=42),
RandomForestClassifier(criterion='entropy', max_depth=40,max_features=X.shape[1],
min_samples_split=8, n_estimators=500, random_state=42),
LGBMClassifier(learning_rate =0.03, max_depth=40, min_data_in_leaf=10,
n_estimators=500, num_leaves=50, random_state = 42),
XGBClassifier(learning_rate=0.05, n_estimators=500, subsample= 1,random_state = 42,
gamma = 1, max_depth=40)]
#putting results in df
res_cols=["Classifier", "Accuracy", "Log Loss", "Cross Val", "Recall", "Roc Auc","F1",
"False Positive Rate", "Error Rate"]
results = pd.DataFrame(columns=res_cols)
for clf in classifiers:
clf.fit(res_X_train, res_y_train)
name = clf.__class__.__name__
print("\n"*3)
print(name,"Results:")
print('~'*40)
y_pred = clf.predict(res_X_test)
acc = accuracy_score(res_y_test, y_pred)
print("Accuracy: {:.4%}".format(acc))
cv= np.mean(cross_val_score(clf, res_X_train, res_y_train, cv=3))
print("Cross validation scores:",cv)
train_predictions = clf.predict_proba(res_X_test)
logloss = log_loss(res_y_test, train_predictions)
print("Log Loss: {}".format(logloss))
cm = confusion_matrix(res_y_test, y_pred)
cm_plot(cm)
#FPR and Error Rate setup
tn, fp, fn, tp = confusion_matrix(res_y_test,y_pred).ravel()
fpr = fp/(tn+fp)
ers = 1-acc
rec= recall_score(res_y_test, y_pred)
roc=roc_auc_score(res_y_test, y_pred)
f1s=f1_score(res_y_test, y_pred)
results_final = pd.DataFrame([[name, round(acc*100,3), round(logloss,3),
round(cv*100,3), round(rec*100,3), round(roc*100,3),
round(f1s*100,3),round(fpr*100,3),round(ers*100,3)]],
columns=res_cols)
results = results.append(results_final)
print("*"*40)
BaggingClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 66.9727% Cross validation scores: 0.6871312576669197 Log Loss: 0.6157355650730744
AdaBoostClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 66.7446% Cross validation scores: 0.6572911190295384 Log Loss: 0.6880453803827911
RandomForestClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 67.0882% Cross validation scores: 0.6884942656307805 Log Loss: 0.6123101302134623
LGBMClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 67.8124% Cross validation scores: 0.6796833927215374 Log Loss: 0.596513578691033
XGBClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 66.7995% Cross validation scores: 0.6879295909028954 Log Loss: 0.6577360727445484
****************************************
print("Results Shape",results.shape)
results.head(10)
Results Shape (5, 9)
| Classifier | Accuracy | Log Loss | Cross Val | Recall | Roc Auc | F1 | False Positive Rate | Error Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BaggingClassifier | 66.973 | 0.616 | 68.713 | 69.082 | 67.882 | 33.607 | 33.318 | 33.027 |
| 0 | AdaBoostClassifier | 66.745 | 0.688 | 65.729 | 64.045 | 65.581 | 31.789 | 32.884 | 33.255 |
| 0 | RandomForestClassifier | 67.088 | 0.612 | 68.849 | 68.864 | 67.854 | 33.614 | 33.156 | 32.912 |
| 0 | LGBMClassifier | 67.812 | 0.597 | 67.968 | 68.346 | 68.042 | 33.943 | 32.261 | 32.188 |
| 0 | XGBClassifier | 66.799 | 0.658 | 68.793 | 69.819 | 68.101 | 33.727 | 33.616 | 33.201 |
For the following Balanced algorithms from imblearn we will be using the standard testing and training sets (X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test) and will allow the algorithms to do the resampling.
For the sampling_strategy, we will be using majority as the solution.
'majority': resample only the majority class
We will then gather the results of some scoring metrics (Accuracy, Log Loss, Cross Validation, Recall, Roc Auc, F1, False Positive Rate, Error Rate), and put those scores into a dataframe.
#train_tes_split without resampling
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.25, random_state=27)
#Try modeling using different classification models
classifiers2 = [
BalancedBaggingClassifier(max_features=X.shape[1], n_estimators=500, replacement=True,
sampling_strategy='majority', random_state=42),
EasyEnsembleClassifier(n_estimators=500, random_state=42, replacement=True,
sampling_strategy='majority'),
BalancedRandomForestClassifier(criterion='entropy', max_depth=40,min_samples_leaf = 1,
max_features=X.shape[1], sampling_strategy='majority',
replacement=True, min_samples_split=8, n_estimators=500,
random_state=42)]
#putting results in df
res_cols2=["Classifier", "Accuracy", "Log Loss", "Cross Val", "Recall", "Roc Auc","F1",
"False Positive Rate", "Error Rate"]
results2 = pd.DataFrame(columns=res_cols2)
for clf2 in classifiers2:
clf2.fit(X_train, y_train)
name2 = clf2.__class__.__name__
print("\n"*3)
print(name2,"Results:")
print('~'*40)
y_pred2 = clf2.predict(X_test)
acc2 = accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred2)
print("Accuracy: {:.4%}".format(acc2))
cv2= np.mean(cross_val_score(clf2, X_train, y_train, cv=3))
print("Cross validation scores:",cv2)
train_predictions2 = clf2.predict_proba(X_test)
logloss2 = log_loss(y_test, train_predictions2)
print("Log Loss: {}".format(logloss2))
cm2 = confusion_matrix(y_test, y_pred2)
cm_plot(cm2)
#FPR and Error Rate setup
tn, fp, fn, tp = confusion_matrix(y_test,y_pred2).ravel()
fpr2 = fp/(tn+fp)
ers2 = 1-acc
rec2= recall_score(y_test, y_pred2)
roc2=roc_auc_score(y_test, y_pred2)
f1s2=f1_score(y_test, y_pred2)
results_final2 = pd.DataFrame([[name2, round(acc2*100,3), round(logloss2,3),
round(cv2*100,3), round(rec2*100,3), round(roc2*100,3),
round(f1s2*100,3),round(fpr2*100,3),round(ers2*100,3)]],
columns=res_cols2)
results2 = results2.append(results_final2)
print("*"*40)
BalancedBaggingClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 78.5321% Cross validation scores: 0.7835718595519356 Log Loss: 0.5083639622989169
EasyEnsembleClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 66.6092% Cross validation scores: 0.6677565267506275 Log Loss: 0.6897912318334272
BalancedRandomForestClassifier Results: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Accuracy: 67.2785% Cross validation scores: 0.6711282603625109 Log Loss: 0.6076769094064609
****************************************
print("Results 2 Shape",results2.shape)
results2.head(10)
Results 2 Shape (3, 9)
| Classifier | Accuracy | Log Loss | Cross Val | Recall | Roc Auc | F1 | False Positive Rate | Error Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BalancedBaggingClassifier | 78.532 | 0.508 | 78.357 | 51.820 | 67.015 | 36.874 | 17.791 | 33.201 |
| 0 | EasyEnsembleClassifier | 66.609 | 0.690 | 66.776 | 65.076 | 65.948 | 32.048 | 33.180 | 33.201 |
| 0 | BalancedRandomForestClassifier | 67.279 | 0.608 | 67.113 | 69.612 | 68.285 | 33.986 | 33.043 | 33.201 |
We will now combine the dataframes from both methods into one datframe for analyzing and visualizations
ml_results = pd.concat([results,results2])
print("Shape",ml_results.shape)
ml_results.head(10)
Shape (8, 9)
| Classifier | Accuracy | Log Loss | Cross Val | Recall | Roc Auc | F1 | False Positive Rate | Error Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BaggingClassifier | 66.973 | 0.616 | 68.713 | 69.082 | 67.882 | 33.607 | 33.318 | 33.027 |
| 0 | AdaBoostClassifier | 66.745 | 0.688 | 65.729 | 64.045 | 65.581 | 31.789 | 32.884 | 33.255 |
| 0 | RandomForestClassifier | 67.088 | 0.612 | 68.849 | 68.864 | 67.854 | 33.614 | 33.156 | 32.912 |
| 0 | LGBMClassifier | 67.812 | 0.597 | 67.968 | 68.346 | 68.042 | 33.943 | 32.261 | 32.188 |
| 0 | XGBClassifier | 66.799 | 0.658 | 68.793 | 69.819 | 68.101 | 33.727 | 33.616 | 33.201 |
| 0 | BalancedBaggingClassifier | 78.532 | 0.508 | 78.357 | 51.820 | 67.015 | 36.874 | 17.791 | 33.201 |
| 0 | EasyEnsembleClassifier | 66.609 | 0.690 | 66.776 | 65.076 | 65.948 | 32.048 | 33.180 | 33.201 |
| 0 | BalancedRandomForestClassifier | 67.279 | 0.608 | 67.113 | 69.612 | 68.285 | 33.986 | 33.043 | 33.201 |
#save to csv
ml_results.to_csv('ml_results.csv')
#Visualize scores for all model
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=8, ncols=1, figsize = (11,18))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
sns.barplot(x='Accuracy', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[0])
sns.barplot(x='Log Loss', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[1])
sns.barplot(x='Cross Val', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[2])
sns.barplot(x='Recall', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[3])
sns.barplot(x='Roc Auc', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[4])
sns.barplot(x='F1', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[5])
sns.barplot(x='False Positive Rate', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[6])
sns.barplot(x='Error Rate', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[7])
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
Based on the visualizations above, Balanced Bagging Classifier from imblearn is the algorithm of choice for this data. While some of the scores may have been close, Balanced Bagging Classifier had higher scores in Accuracy, Cross Validation, and Specificity. The algorithm also had the lower Error Rate and False Positive Rates of the group.
Balanced Bagging Classifier performed thest best of the classifiers, however, I was not comfortable with how close its predictions were for Serious Accidents in the confusion matrix. Due to this, I decided to combine Balanced Bagging Classifier with the second highest performing algorithm, LightGBM to see what results I would get.
#start
start_res_bbag_w_lgbm = time.time()
# Balanced Bagging Classifier
res_bbag_w_lgbm = BalancedBaggingClassifier(base_estimator=LGBMClassifier(learning_rate =0.03,
max_depth=40,
min_data_in_leaf=10,
n_estimators=500,
num_leaves=50,
random_state = 42),
max_features=X.shape[1], n_estimators=500,
replacement=True, sampling_strategy='majority',
random_state=42)
res_bbag_w_lgbm.fit(X_train, y_train)
pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm = res_bbag_w_lgbm.predict(X_test)
# Creates a confusion matrix
res_bbag_w_lgbm_cm = confusion_matrix(y_test,pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm)
# Transform to df for easier plotting
res_bbag_w_lgbm_cm_df = pd.DataFrame(res_bbag_w_lgbm_cm,
index = ['Not Serious','Serious'],
columns = ['Not Serious','Serious'])
plt.figure(figsize=(15,5))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
sns.heatmap(res_bbag_w_lgbm_cm_df, annot=True, fmt="d", cmap='viridis', linecolor='black', linewidths=1)
plt.title('Resampled Balanced Bagging with LightGBM Accuracy: {0:.2f}%'.format(accuracy_score(y_test,pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm )*100),
fontsize=15)
plt.ylabel('Actual\n')
plt.xlabel('Predicted\n')
plt.show()
# print("Resampled Balanced Bagging with LightGBM Classifier Cross Validation Score: {:0.2f}%"
# .format(np.mean(cross_val_score(res_bbag_w_lgbm, X_train, y_train, cv=3)*100)))
print('Cross Val Score was 69.67%. It was commented out here to save time when re-running.')
print('Check UK_Road_Safety_Traffic_Accidents_and_Vehicles(old).ipynb to see proof')
print('\n')
#end
end_res_bbag_w_lgbm = time.time()
print("\nResampled Balanced Bagging with LightGBM Time: ",end_res_bbag_w_lgbm - start_res_bbag_w_lgbm)
Cross Val Score was 69.67%. It was commented out here to save time when re-running. Check UK_Road_Safety_Traffic_Accidents_and_Vehicles(old).ipynb to see proof Resampled Balanced Bagging with LightGBM Time: 6522.161206007004
#extracting true_positives, false_positives, true_negatives, false_negatives
tn, fp, fn, tp = confusion_matrix(y_test,pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm).ravel()
accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test,pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm)*100
specificity = tn/(tn+fp)*100
fpr = fp/(tn+fp)*100
ers = 100-accuracy
train_predictions2 = res_bbag_w_lgbm.predict_proba(X_test)
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Specificity Score: {0:.2f}%".format(specificity))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM False Positive Rate Score: {0:.2f}%".format(fpr))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Error Rate Score: {0:.2f}%".format(ers))
#Check scores
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Accuracy Score: {:0.2f}%"
.format(accuracy_score(y_test,pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm )*100))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM F1 Score: {:0.2f}%"
.format(f1_score(y_test, pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm,average="macro")*100))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Precision Scoreres_: {:0.2f}%"
.format(precision_score(y_test, pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm, average="macro")*100))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Recall Score: {:0.2f}%"
.format(recall_score(y_test, pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm, average="macro")*100))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Roc Auc Score: {0:.2f}%"
.format(roc_auc_score(y_test, pred_res_bbag_w_lgbm)*100))
print("Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Log Loss {0:.2f}%"
.format(log_loss(y_test, train_predictions2)*100))
Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Specificity Score: 69.43% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM False Positive Rate Score: 30.57% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Error Rate Score: 30.86% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Accuracy Score: 69.14% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM F1 Score: 57.14% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Precision Scoreres_: 58.53% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Recall Score: 68.24% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Roc Auc Score: 68.24% Resampled Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM Log Loss 58.23%
The results were better than the other learning algorithms but lower accuracy wise than the previous Balanced Bagging Algorithm. Taking all of that into consideration, I have decided that depending on what was the goal, either Balanced Bagging Classifier algorithm could be used. If I were more concerned with overall accuracy, the regular Balanced Bagging Classifier would be used. If I were more concerned with making sure "Serious" predictions were achieved, Balanced Bagging Classifier with LightGBM would be used.
ml_results = ml_results.append(pd.Series(["BalancedBaggingClassifierW/LGBM", 69.140,0.582,
69.670,68.240,68.240,57.140,30.570,30.860],
index=ml_results.columns),ignore_index=True)
ml_results.head(10)
| Classifier | Accuracy | Log Loss | Cross Val | Recall | Roc Auc | F1 | False Positive Rate | Error Rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | BaggingClassifier | 66.973 | 0.616 | 68.713 | 69.082 | 67.882 | 33.607 | 33.318 | 33.027 |
| 1 | AdaBoostClassifier | 66.745 | 0.688 | 65.729 | 64.045 | 65.581 | 31.789 | 32.884 | 33.255 |
| 2 | RandomForestClassifier | 67.088 | 0.612 | 68.849 | 68.864 | 67.854 | 33.614 | 33.156 | 32.912 |
| 3 | LGBMClassifier | 67.812 | 0.597 | 67.968 | 68.346 | 68.042 | 33.943 | 32.261 | 32.188 |
| 4 | XGBClassifier | 66.799 | 0.658 | 68.793 | 69.819 | 68.101 | 33.727 | 33.616 | 33.201 |
| 5 | BalancedBaggingClassifier | 78.532 | 0.508 | 78.357 | 51.820 | 67.015 | 36.874 | 17.791 | 33.201 |
| 6 | EasyEnsembleClassifier | 66.609 | 0.690 | 66.776 | 65.076 | 65.948 | 32.048 | 33.180 | 33.201 |
| 7 | BalancedRandomForestClassifier | 67.279 | 0.608 | 67.113 | 69.612 | 68.285 | 33.986 | 33.043 | 33.201 |
| 8 | BalancedBaggingClassifierW/LGBM | 69.140 | 0.582 | 69.670 | 68.240 | 68.240 | 57.140 | 30.570 | 30.860 |
#Visualize scores for all model
fig, ax =plt.subplots(nrows=8, ncols=1, figsize = (11,18))
plt.style.use('dark_background')
sns.barplot(x='Accuracy', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[0])
sns.barplot(x='Log Loss', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[1])
sns.barplot(x='Cross Val', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[2])
sns.barplot(x='Recall', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[3])
sns.barplot(x='Roc Auc', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[4])
sns.barplot(x='F1', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[5])
sns.barplot(x='False Positive Rate', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[6])
sns.barplot(x='Error Rate', y='Classifier', data=ml_results, palette='plasma', ax=ax[7])
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
ml_results.to_csv('ml_results_final_results.csv')
Genesis L. Taylor
Github | Linkedin | Tableau | genesisltaylor@gmail.com